Cattle Markets Rebound

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Cattle futures Tried to rally early in the week on the slightly bullish Cattle on Feed Report, making the highs for the week on Monday. The rally wasn’t able to be sustained as irrational fear took over the complex in response to Secretary Rollins comments she would be in Arizona on Friday. Arizona is the port where she said any border reopening would take place because it is the furthest from the nearest to the US screwworm appearance in Mexico. When she was in Fort Worth , Texas for the Texas Cattle Raisers Association convention, she indicated she could potentially reopen the border with Mexico for cattle imports. She would comment within 2 – 4 weeks on her intentions. This week is the 4^th week since that commentary and her appearing in Arizona is the perfect photo op for the reopen. With the technical picture deteriorating in collusion with the Arizona visit, the cattle markets reacted negatively and took price to new lows for this breakdown since making new highs. The breakdown stalled and turned higher as talk surfaced, she wouldn’t be in Arizona and therefore no speech would likely happen about the border. Friday saw the price action rally to resistance and pullback off the highs. Slaughter rebounded this week to its second highest level for the month. It is interesting that slaughter increased this week after the packer bought the most cattle likely for the year so far. Analysts were saying that would keep the packer needs limited for a while. Yet with all the cattle bought they increased slaughter. Interesting… Cutouts did move somewhat higher this week, but not where you could say they packer was making a killing in the market. Yet they increased slaughter. We are now coming into the grilling season and my belief is the slaughter numbers should increase going forward and they will need to acquire more cattle. The cash market had a slight hiccup in the price action as the packer was able to buy cattle a couple bucks cheaper than last week. I think cash prices should rebound going forward and futures traders should get over the border reopening. Her comments indicated a border reopen would be limited in scope and with summer coming up and fly activity increasing due to the warmer weather, any border reopen may not last too long. We’ll see!... August Feeder Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has surpassed the volume of the May contract. Feeder Cattle opened higher and rallied to resistance at 363.00, making the high at 363.65. It turned lower and broke down, making the low at 360.05, testing support at the sliding 50-DMA now at 360.125. Feeders settled at 361.775. If Feeder Cattle can hold settlement, we may see price revisit resistance at 363.00. Resistance then comes in at 365.675. A failure from settlement can retest the 50-DMA support. Support then comes in at 358.875. June Live Cattle also opened higher and rallied to its high at 246.50. The rally stalled just under resistance at the declining 13-DMA now at 246.90 and the key level at 246.975. Price then broke down, trading to its low at 243.825. This was just below the Thursday high at 243.95 and price bounced back and settled at 245.225. This took price above the key level at 245.125. If Live Cattle can hold settlement, it could retest the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at 248.30. A failure from the low could see price test support at 242.075. Support then comes in at rising 50-DMA now at 239.85.

The Feeder Cattle Index released Friday decreased 0.68 and is at 369.32 as of 04/23/2026 settlement. 

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts surged 3.50 to 387.00 and select surged 3.49 to 386.07. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 0.93 and the load count was 71.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 93,000, which is above last week’s 77,000 and last year’s 83,730. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 11,000, which is above last week’s 8,000 and last year’s 9,589. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 529,000, which is above last week’s 514,000 and below last year’s 555,260.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There were a few live purchases at 248.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday at 246.00 for live purchases and dressed purchases were at 386.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all other major feeding regions. The last established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday with live purchases at 246.00. The last established market in Kansas was Thursday with live purchases at mostly 246.00. The last established market in Nebraska was Thursday with live purchases at 246.00 and dressed purchases at 386.00. 

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 244.00 – 248.00 and from 385.00 – 386.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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