Intel’s Big Rally Is Colliding With Earnings Risk; Capture the Volatility With 2X Daily Leverage

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Intel Corporation (INTC) has staged one of the more striking reversals in the semiconductor industry. 

After falling 60% in 2024, logging its worst-ever annual performance as a public company, the stock closed 2025 up 84% and has continued to rise since. INTC is up over 60% year-to-date (as of April 10, 2026), more than tripling in price from its lows last year.

So how did Intel turn things around?

After years of struggling to close major foundry customers while burning cash on research and development, it now looks like the tide has turned: 

• NVIDIA invested $5 billion in Intel common stock in September 2025, and the two companies are collaborating on custom data center and PC products.
• SoftBank made a separate investment around the same time.
• The U.S. government converted its grants into equity, taking a nearly 10% stake.
• On April 9, Alphabet announced plans to deploy Intel's next-generation Xeon processors and co-develop custom Infrastructure Processing Units for data centers, expanding their AI partnership. 

Intel has also joined the Terafab project alongside SpaceX, Tesla (TSLA), and xAI, which is a joint, large-scale semiconductor fabrication facility to develop and manufacture advanced AI chips. Intel's CFO noted during a Morgan Stanley conference last month that the company is close to closing foundry packaging deals in the billions of dollars per year.

Intel faces immense scrutiny heading into the April earnings report, and trading volatility is likely to be heightened. Traders can use the Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT), which offers 200% daily leverage to capitalize on anticipated increased trading volatility. 

Will INTC’s upward momentum continue? Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations

Intel is still in the early stages of a financial turnaround, and the Q1 2026 earnings report reflects that. Wall Street expects a loss of $0.11 per share for the quarter, compared to a loss of $0.02 in the same quarter last year. That is not the story traders are positioned around. The story is what happens to earnings from here.

The earnings beat history is genuinely mixed. Intel beat estimates in Q1, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, including a 300% surprise in Q4 when it reported $0.04 against a $0.02 estimate. It missed in Q2 by 85.71%. For a company in the middle of a turnaround, the quarter-to-quarter swings in results and expectations are wide, and April 23 should be no different.

Wall Street Opinion: Has INTC Run Too Far, Too Fast?

Intel's analyst picture is the inverse of most other stocks in this series. Of 44 analysts covering INTC, the consensus is a Hold. The mean 12-month price target is $46.79, representing significant downside from the current price. The high target on the Street is $70, and the low is $30.

That gap between price and analyst targets suggests that the stock's move has been driven by investors pricing in partnership announcements, the foundry turnaround narrative, and the long runway to 2027 earnings rather than near-term fundamentals. 

KeyBanc is among the more constructive voices, reiterating an Overweight rating with a $70 target and citing improving 18A manufacturing node yields and potential increases in CPU pricing as key catalysts.

For traders, the combination of a stock trading well above analyst consensus targets and a major earnings event creates a setup in which the price reaction on April 23 could be significant in either direction. The stock has a 60-month beta* of 1.35, meaning it tends to amplify market swings.

Intel reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 23 after the close. For traders looking to trade volatility, the Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT) offers 200% daily leverage.

Trading INTC Into Earnings With 2X Daily Leverage

The Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT) seeks 200% of the daily performance of Intel Corporation common stock.

• When INTC rises 1%, LINT targets a 2% gain (before fees)
• When INTC falls 1%, LINT aims for a 2% decline (before fees)
• No need to borrow shares or maintain margin collateral

LINT resets its leverage exposure daily. The 2X target applies to single-day price movements, and holding the fund beyond a single day introduces compounding effects. It is designed for short-term tactical trading, not long-term holds.

Trade Intel’s Comeback And Upcoming Earnings Volatility

Intel enters its April 23 earnings report with significant momentum, supported by a string of high-profile partnerships that validate its foundry and AI chip ambitions. While the company’s financial trajectory remains unprofitable in the immediate term, the market has increasingly priced in a pivot toward meaningful earnings growth by 2027. The upcoming Q1 results and Q2 guidance will be the ultimate test of whether the stock can sustain this premium valuation or if a pullback is in order.

The Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF (LINT) offers a tactical way to play the expected volatility surrounding the upcoming earnings release. For those with high, bullish conviction, LINT provides a simple vehicle to gain 200% daily leveraged exposure without managing a margin account.

*Beta: Beta is a widely used indicator of a stock's price volatility or the level of risk relative to the broader market.

The Funds do not seek to achieve their stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day. Investing in a Direxion Shares ETF may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by the Fund increases the risk to the Fund. The Direxion Shares ETFs are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment.  

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in INTC.

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

Intel Corporation Investing Risk – Intel Corporation shares face risks associated with: intense competition; rapidly changing industry; long-term risky investments in research and development may not benefit the company; development and implementation of semiconductor products is uncertain; changes in demand and margins; macroeconomic conditions are uncontrollable; use of artificial intelligence is rapidly evolving; complexities of the global supply chain; among other risks.

Semiconductor Industry Risk – Semiconductor companies may face intense competition, both domestically and internationally, may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel and may face risks related to the availability of materials.

Information Technology Sector Risk — The value of stocks of information technology companies and companies that rely heavily on technology is particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in technology product cycles, rapid product obsolescence, government regulation, and competition, both domestically and internationally, including competition from competitors with lower production costs.

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