Chart of the Day - June Live Cattle

The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

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Thursday, April 9, 2026

June Live Cattle (Daily) 

On Monday of this week, June Live Cattle hit a new contract high at 248.45.  Since then, the market has gone sideways a bit.  Today June Fats closed at 247.200, gaining 1.275 on the day.   Thursday’s settlement puts them up 0.875 for the week, as momentum seems to have stalled. Overall, the uptrend in Cattle is still intact.  And we still have less Cattle and more people to feed, in my opinion.

On the chart above, you may notice that the 5-day moving average (blue, 246.455) has held as support for the past 3 days. The 10-day (red, 243.368) hasn’t been tested since March 25-26^th.  Both of those are currently inclined toward higher prices and still in a bullish configuration.  As are the longer-term averages, the 50-day (green), the 100-day (grey) and the 200-day (purple).  Those three are well below the market, with the 50-day being the closest at 235.639. Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are in overbought territory, and have been since March 24^th.  It certainly appears to me that this market has preferred being overbought over the view of this chart.

Cash Cattle prices remain at very elevated levels, with many Sale Barns setting daily records for the prices paid for the lighter Feeder Cattle.  Prices are high, but the volume or number of head has been declining.  Cash trade for slaughter weights has been slow this week and it’s estimated that the packers are underwater again, after turning back to the profitable side last week.  Last I saw, the packers weren’t bidding this week and the offers were up near 250 in the cash markets, not the futures.  If we see that price trade tomorrow, the futures markets could break to new highs on Friday and accelerate the trend.  Boxed Beef prices have been declining since March 24^th.   The next fundamental supply-side report will be the Cattle on Feed report, due next Friday, the 17^th.

Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider long futures positions.  I’ve been advocating for that in my past few articles here, and I see no reason to deviate, at the moment.  We have less Cattle and more people to feed.  As long as retail demand for Beef stays strong, I would expect that to continue into mid-summer. 

If you’re looking for an entry point, consider Buying the June Live Cattle with a Buy Stop above Monday’s high.  Perhaps an entry at 248.600 would work, for you, as you would be buying on strength.  If bargain hunting is more your speed, place an order to get long on a dip, should the market re-test the previous (October) contract high at/near 244.500.  I don’t know your risk-tolerance, so I’ll leave the protective stops, if you do get long, up to you.  For an upside target, there will likely be some resistance near the 250.000 mark, as it’s a nice fat, round even number.  I think it’s more likely to head through there up to 260.000 or little beyond, if the momentum continues.

If you’re a producer and worried about downside risk, please feel free to contact me directly for suggestions.

June Live and May Feeder Cattle (Weekly)

Both Live and Feeder Cattle charts have turned back to the bullish side, in my opinion.  The weekly moving averages on the 2 charts above, the 5- and 10-week (blue/red), have made bullish crossovers.  The Live Cattle did that with last week’s trade and the Feeders are following behind this week.  And while Live Cattle have filled in all of the chart gaps, the Feeders have yet to fill the gap from October, which is denoted by the dotted red line on the Feeder Chart.  They likely won’t go straight up, but the bulls do seem to have control of the Cattle markets.  You may notice, by looking at the weekly charts above, the last bullish crossovers in both Live and Feeder Cattle resulted in 9 weeks of bullish momentum.  Do you think we’ll see a repeat of that? 

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Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

Direct 312 957 8248 Toll Free 800 556 9411

jfosse@walshtrading.com   www.walshtrading.com

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