All wheat planted acreage estimate lowest since 1919

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Prospective Plantings report today says "All wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919." It state that the 2026 winter wheat planted area, at 32.4 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down 2 percent from last year. The report also provides details about the various types of wheat.

The lower acreage coupled with potential weather issues raises questions about the Hard Red Winter (HRW) crops in the Plains states. In my opinion, lower acreage and neutral ending stocks from last year could set the stage for a bull market.

The monthly and quarterly chart patterns below for May 2026 Chicago Wheat are extremely bullish, in my opinion.  

An option strategy is to sell three May 2026 Chicago Wheat 580 puts at 6.2 (approximately $310.00). With that money in your account, buy one July 2026 Chicago Wheat $7.00 call at 20.0 ($1,000). The puts you sell will just about pay for call you buy. Expiration date of the May options is April 24, 2026. Expiration date of the July 2026 options is June 26, 2026. 

A futures strategy is to buy May 2026 Chicago Wheat at 605.2 (today's low), good til cancelled (GTC). The sell stop is 594.0, GTC. Profit objective on the trade is 635.0 per contract. The highest wheat went so far this year is 641.6 on March 9, 2026.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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