The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday finished up by +0.31% and posted a 1-1/2 week high.  The dollar found support Tuesday on increased safe-haven demand after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit outlook to negative from stable due to rising debt.  Weakness in the euro also supported the dollar after dovish ECB comments knocked EUR/USD down to a 3-week low Tuesday.  The dollar fell back from its best levels after the U.S. Oct JOLTS job openings fell more than expected to a 2-1/2 year low, a dovish factor for Fed policy.

Tuesday’s U.S. economic news was mixed for the dollar.  On the bullish side, the Nov ISM services index rose +0.9 to 52.7, stronger than expectations of 52.3.  Conversely, Oct JOLTS job openings fell -617,000 to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.733 million, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 9.300 million.

The markets are discounting a 0% chance for a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Dec 12-13 FOMC and a 0% chance for that... Read more