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U.S. Dollar/Euro FX (^USDEUR)

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U.S. Dollar/Euro FX Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Moves Higher on Reduced Fed 50-bp Rate-Cut Speculation

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose +0.379 (+0.39%). Sep euro-fx futures (E6U9) closed down -0.0049 (-0.43%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell -0.0059 (-0.52%). Sep yen futures (J6U9) closed down -0.27 (-0.28%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose +0.40 (+0.37%). The dollar index moved higher Friday on reduced speculation about a 50 bp FOMC rate cut at its July 30-31 meeting and also on some US/Chinese trade optimism after US/Chinese top officials held a conference call late Thursday. The New York Fed late Thursday walked back Thursday's comment from New York Fed President Williams that "it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress" by saying that the comment was academic talk based on 20 years of research and was not about potential Fed policy actions. That curbed speculation the Fed may cut rates by 50 bp at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. The dollar added to its gains Friday after St. Louis Fed President Bullard said, "a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed would be appropriate as the current situation doesn't warrant a larger rate cut." EUR/USD was undercut by Friday's decline in the German June PPI to a 2-1/2 year low of +1.2% y/y (vs expectations of +1.5%), which sent the 10-year German bund yield down to a 1-week low of -0.330% and hurt the euro's interest rate differentials. USD/JPY rose after Friday's data showed that Japan June national CPI rose by only +0.6% y/y, the smallest increase in nearly 2 years, which may push the BOJ to boost yen-negative stimulus measures. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) market expectations of a 100% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, (2) the recent plunge in the 10-year T-note yield to a 2-1/2 year low of 1.938%, which weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials, (3) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (4) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through mid-2020, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a record low of -0.409%, which undercut the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Jul 16, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
-269,227 (-2,924)
-265,074 (-4,735)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
-170,487 (-12,089)
-201,838 (-7,575)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
-36,780 (-441)
-138,651 (-2,290)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
-310,748 (-3,689)
-161,311 (-5,907)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
-37,455 (-5,634)
-126,557 (-3,105)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
-24,974 (-5,427)
-10,636 (-1,186)

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
0.87619 +1.70%
on 06/25/19
0.89334 -0.25%
on 07/09/19
+0.00037 (+0.04%)
since 06/19/19
3-Month
0.87619 +1.70%
on 06/25/19
0.90027 -1.02%
on 05/23/19
+0.00188 (+0.21%)
since 04/19/19
52-Week
0.84638 +5.28%
on 09/24/18
0.90027 -1.02%
on 05/23/19
+0.03227 (+3.76%)
since 07/19/18

Most Recent Stories

More News
EURUSD Consolidates With Downside Threats

EURUSD consolidates with downside bias as it retains its broader medium term trend.

USDCHF Retains Its Downside Pressure

USDCHF retains its downside pressure as it looks to weaken further in the days ahead. Resistance resides at the 0.9850 level.

Reined-in rate-cut expectations, Iran tensions hit S&P 500

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks pulled further back from their records on Friday to cap the weakest week for the S&P 500 since May.

UNH : 256.65 (-1.52%)
AMZN : 1,964.52 (-0.68%)
AXP : 124.82 (-2.79%)
COF : 90.65 (+2.13%)
BA : 377.36 (+4.50%)
MSFT : 136.62 (+0.15%)
Fed's Williams goes uber dovish yesterday. NY Fed and Bullard try to dial it back.

Embarrassing Williams fiasco sees Fed rate cut trade explode higher, then retrace. EURUSD and Italian markets fretting about possible snap election in Italy. Canadian Retail Sales for May miss...

Daily Technical Spotlight - September Euro Currency

Bears have solid overall near-term chart advantage but trading turns choppy again. now suggesting strong support layers just below the market may hold. Still, bulls have very heavy lifting to do to start...

U.S. Stock Index Futures Overperforming the News on the Upside

Yesterdays gains were linked to comments from New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams when he suggested the Federal Reserve should be more aggressive in its monetary policies in an effort...

EUR/USD can re-test 1.1285 while trading above 1.1240

The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1.1210 and trend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.1240

Oil price rises on Mideast tensions, stock markets cautious

BANGKOK (AP) — The price of oil rose on Friday after the U.S. said it had destroyed an Iranian drone near the Persian Gulf, where a lot of the world's oil is shipped through. Stock markets were largely...

GBP up on vote to block no-deal Brexit

US equities rebounded after New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams said that central bankers should act quickly to lower interest rates at the first sign of economic distress.

GBPUSD Corrective Bull Pressure Remains Intact

GBPUSD corrective bull pressure remains intact as we look for price extension. Support comes in at 1.2500 with a turn below that level shifting focus to the 1.2450 level.

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 56% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 0.89607
1st Resistance Point 0.89357
Last Price 0.89107
1st Support Level 0.88744
2nd Support Level 0.88381

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52-Week High 0.90027
Last Price 0.89107
Fibonacci 61.8% 0.87968
Fibonacci 50% 0.87332
Fibonacci 38.2% 0.86697
52-Week Low 0.84638

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