Your Roadmap Into CPI and the Fed Meeting

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5371.25, up 15.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,109.75, up 72.00

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures consolidated below their respective record highs set in the post-Nonfarm Payrolls rebound Friday. Given yesterday's lack of additional enthusiasm, today could provide a nice range trade as market participants await tomorrow’s CPI release at 7:30 am CT and the conclusion of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting at 1:00 pm CT, where they release a policy decision, statement, Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Powell holds a press conference.

Internally, yesterday was a mixed session. AAPL finished lower amid its developer conference, NVDA pared losses on its first day of trading the 10:1 stock split, AMD was downgraded, LLY set a fresh record on its Alzheimer’s drug news, financials were lower and energy was higher.

As we near the U.S. opening bell, both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are flirting at their respective pivot and point of balance. Continued action below 5360-5363.75 in the E-mini S&P ushers a retest of the opening bell low from both Friday and Monday at 5341. Similarly, continued action below 19,067 in the E-mini NQ increases the probability of a test of 18,940-18,982. However, a firm tape within the first 30-60 minutes that holds above our Pivot and point of balance could pave the way for an old-school pre-Fed ramp. Given tame CPI expectations and the dovish-leaning results of the last FOMC meeting, this is certainly in the cards.

• Bias: Bullish/Neutral
• Resistance: 5371.25-5375.75, 5380-5385.50, 5400-5406.50, 5420.75, 5430.50, 5449.50, 5459.75, 5475.75
• Pivot: 5360-6363.75
• Support: 5357, 5348.25-5351.25, 5339.75-5341, 5328-5331.25, 5322, 5312.50-5316.50, 5304-5306.50, 5295.25-5298**, 5286.50-5288

NQ (June)

• Resistance: 19,121-19,155, 19,208**, 19,319-19,322, 19,414, 19,507
• Pivot: 19,067
• Support: 19,017-19,034, 18,940-18,982, 18,854-18,880, 18,800-18,819, 18,753-18,756, 18,701

Crude Oil (July)

Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.74, up 2.21

WTI Crude Oil futures notched a fantastic start to the week, gaining 2.93%. It is no coincidence the gain comes on the heels of a strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. We have spoken about this often, strong economic data may encourage a risk-off tone by pushing out Fed rate cut projections, but ultimately has a positive impact on Crude Oil in the aftermath. Some of yesterday’s rise could also be credited to consolidation tailwinds ahead of this morning’s OPEC Monthly report that left projections little changed, and prices have initially reacted by coming off session highs. We look to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT.

Technically, yesterday’s move to reclaim major three-star resistance at 76.15-76.63, the May lows, has neutralized the early June fallout. As today’s session unfolds into tomorrow’s weekly EIA data, it will be critical for price action to hold out above major three-star support at 76.15-76.25 in order to keep the bulls, in our opinion, with their reestablished edge.

• Bias: Bullish/Neutral
• Resistance: 77.51-77.80, 78.29-78.16**, 79.32-80.09
• Pivot: 77.35
• Support: 76.99, 76.63*, 76.15-76.25, 75.53-75.84

Gold (August) / Silver (July)

• Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2327.0, up 2.0
• Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 29.874, up 0.434

Gold and Silver futures have faced tremendous headwinds from all angles. Friday’s obliteration began after data showed People’s Bank of China did not add to its Gold reserves in May, breaking a streak of 18 straight months. Although we know central banks around the world are still adding to Gold and private entities in China are likely to be doing the same, the news should not have been a total shock as the PBOC softened its buying in April, and as prices have skyrocketed, up as much as 23% in May from the December low.

A strong U.S Nonfarm Payrolls reported, highlighted by large job growth and steadfast wage growth hit a market while it was down. However, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0%, a two year high. While pockets of data show some erosions, job growth has been abundant, especially in the services sector.

Gold and Silver price action improved yesterday before China returned from a three-day holiday to pick up from Friday’s selling that was incurred during U.S. hours. While Silver set a fresh low last night, losing 3% from session highs, Gold remained more constructive, and we are now seeing improvement at the onset of U.S. hours. In fact, Gold is testing the highest level since Friday morning. While there is strong overhead supply in the aftermath of Friday’s damage, we view a move that can hold above 2327-2330.6 as constructive and sets the stage for a potential move out above major three-star resistance at 2343.3-2346.2, which pins Gold positive on the month and neutralizes Friday’s bludgeoning.

• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 2334.8-2337.1, 2343.3-2346.2
• Pivot: 2327-2330.6
• Support: 2322.5-2324.7, 2314.5-2318.5, 2302.4-2308.7, 2227.5-2256.4*

Silver (July)

• Resistance: 29.62-29.72, 29.87-29.94, 30.07-30.09, 30.23-30.33
• Pivot: 29.51
• Support: 29.33-29.37, 29.13-29.23, 28.70-28.80****

Micro Bitcoin (June)

• Yesterday’s close: Settled at 69,875, up 120
• Bias: Neutral
• Resistance: 68,600-68,850, 69,755-69,875, 70,415-70,515, 71,160, 71,650-71,890, 72,635-72,825, 73,685, 76,685-77,000
• Pivot: 67,780-68,035****
• Support: 66,898-67,030, 65,995, 65,067, 63,236-63,325

*Ownership in AAPL NVDA

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