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2-Year T-Note Jun '19 (ZTM19)

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2-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

T-Note Prices Settle Higher After U.S./China Trade Talks Stall and Brexit Risks Increase

June 10-year T-notes on Friday closed up by +2 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell by -0.7 bp to 2.387%, just above Thursday's 1-1/2 month low of 2.352%. A stall in U.S./China trade talks undercut stocks Friday and boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-note prices were also supported by increased Brexit risks and a rally in UK gilts. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 6-week low of 1.006% on increased Brexit uncertainty after a UK government spokesman said talks with the opposition Labour party had ended without reaching a Brexit deal, likely ending Prime Minister May's hopes for getting her Brexit bill passed in a Parliamentary vote scheduled for early June. Another positive for T-note prices Friday was a decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate fell by -2.6 bp to a 1-1/2 month low of 1.824%. T-notes fell back from their best levels Friday after stock prices recovered when the University of Michigan U.S. May consumer sentiment index rose +5.2 to a 15-1/4 year high of 102.4, stronger than expectations of no change at 97.2 Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) the FOMC's move in January to a neutral policy and market expectations for at least one rate cut by the end of 2020, (2) low U.S. inflation with the U.S. core PCE deflator at only +1.6% y/y, well below the Fed's +2.0% inflation target, (3) carry-over support from a plunge in the 10-year bund yield to a 2-1/2 year low of -0.132%, and (4) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 and the Fed's balance sheet draw-down program that will last through September, and (2) the continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
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