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Coffee Jul '19 (KCN19)

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Coffee Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Surge on Heavy Rain and Frost Risks in Brazil

July arabica coffee (KCN19) on Tuesday closed up by +3.00 (+3.34%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMK19) closed up by +30 (+2.25%). Coffee prices rallied sharply Tuesday with July arabica at a 3-week high as fund short covering emerged on concern that heavy rain in Brazil will delay harvesting and the bean-drying of Brazil's coffee crop. Data from Somar Meteorologia showed that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, was 50.3 mm in the past week, or 316% of the historical average. Also, Somar Meteorologia forecasts the chance of frost in the higher elevations of Minas Gerais through the first week of June. Current coffee supplies over the past month have declined as ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to a 6-1/2 month low of 2.435 mln bags Friday, well below the 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags from Mar 25. On the negative side was Monday's upbeat forecast from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) for South American and Indonesian coffee output. FAS forecasts Columbia coffee output this year to be unchanged at 14.3 mln bags and for Guatemala coffee output this year to climb to 3.393 mln bags from 3.388 mln bags last year, citing "positive impacts from the low intensity El Nino drought that has increased flowering."
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