Earnings and Macro Heat Up, How to Navigate?

Is it Time to Invest in Bitcoin?

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5503.00, up 4.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,209.25, up 34.75

The week begins to heat up with Microsoft, the largest company in the world by market cap, reporting earnings after the bell. On Thursday, April 25th, Microsoft, along with Alphabet, reported earnings after the bell and helped mark the start of a turning point in the broader indices. Similar to the current landscape, after a tremendous first quarter, the S&P and NQ were going through a healthy pullback, colliding with earnings, a Fed meeting, and Nonfarm Payrolls. The evening prior, Meta had just missed earnings due to monumental spending and finished that Thursday -10.56%. But this monumental spending echoed an ‘AI arms race’; spend or fall behind. Microsoft reported a solid quarter and finished +1.97 on Friday, while Alphabet blew the doors off and gained 9.97% to finish the week. We all know what happened in the months to follow; the market bottomed in the ensuing week with help from a dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell and strong earnings from Apple and Amazon. Ultimately, once many earnings and macro uncertainties were removed, the S&P and NQ went on to fresh record highs. Fast forward to now, Alphabet set a softer tone last week due to similar spending fears (as Meta then). Is it now Microsoft’s turn to step to the plate with its own blowout quarter?

Macro is also front and center as we look to the Case Shiller Home Price Index at 8:00 am CT, followed by JOLTs (Job Openings) and CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. Tonight, we have a Bank of Japan policy meeting and a slate of PMI data out of China. Of course, this all leads into tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

Through yesterday’s opening bell, price action in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures failed again at major three-star resistance (adjusted) at 5533.25-5534.50 and 19,348-19,390. These levels will stand as a critical line in the sand that can either stoke the tape to unfold as a bear flag or, if resistance is surrendered, open the door to a healthy rebound and repair. Yesterday’s session can be defined as a consolidation, and one that held increasingly important supports that were retested overnight. We see what unfolded as constructive, but ideally, we see today’s price action remain at arm’s length from support and buoyant above our Pivot and point of balance that aligns as our momentum indicator and is defined in the E-mini S&P as…

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