Sharp Drop for Cattle Out of CoF Data

Live cattle are falling by triple digits in response to the Friday CoF report. Feb is down the most with a 3.4% loss of over $6, though the nearbys are ~50c off their daily lows for midday. There were still no deliveries against October, with the oldest dated long now marked as 4/10/23. OI data had 3,179 contracts still in play as of Friday’s settle. Cash trade for last week strengthened $1-2 on the week, with Southern trade centered around $184-185 and Northern cattle exchanging hands at $186-187.

Feeder cattle are also dropping 1 to 2.2% through midday, with a $5 loss for the Nov contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was another 84c weaker to $243.99 for 10/19. 

The monthly Cattle on Feed update had 11.58m head of cattle in 1,000+ capacity feedlots on October 1st. That was 0.6% above Oct ’22, compared to the pre-report expectations for a 0.3% drop. Sep placements were 2.206m head, up by a shocking 6% from Sep ’22, and up 10% from August. The average trade guess was to see a 0.8% yr/yr increase. NASS had marketings at 1.663m head for Sep, down 10.6% yr/yr and near the trade estimates. The report updated the heifer ratio in feedlots, showing 40%, which is up from 39.75% last year. 

USDA’s updated Wholesale Boxed Beef report had mixed quotes on Monday morning. Choice dropped by 42 cents to $304.96, while Select was $3.84 stronger to $282.54. USDA reported last week’s beef production at 527.8m lbs, up 3.5% for the week but 6.1% below the same week last year. FI cattle slaughter was listed at 638k head for the week, up 3.4% from last week but 5.5% below the same week last year. The YTD slaughter was marked at 26.122m head, trailing last year’s 27.373m head pace. 

Oct 23 Cattle  are at $182.025, down $2.250,

Dec 23 Cattle  are at $178.925, down $5.700,

Feb 24 Cattle  are at $181.525, down $6.200,

Cash Cattle Index was $184.850, from $182.82 last week

Oct 23 Feeder Cattle  are at $239.100, down $2.725

Nov 23 Feeder Cattle  are at $237.425, down $4.800