Cattle Volatility Reaches its Highest Level in Over 2-Years

Live Cattle

Technicals (February – G)

Welp, it was another day that ended with “y”, which has a recently shown a strong correlation to cattle being lower.  Pardon me for trying to make humor in what has been one of the most dramatic selloffs in cattle that we’ve seen.  Seasonal tendencies have been out of whack for live cattle for majority of the year and are never a guarantee, but as you can see from the second chart below (updated today, April live cattle) this is a time of year where we’ve historically seen some support come into the market.  The CME CVOL index for Live Cattle, which measures volatility made new highs yesterday, reaching it’s highest levels since September of 2021.  The difference between now and then is that back then it was a pop and drop.  The volatility we’ve seen recently has been lingering at the upper bounds.  

Weekly export sales were beyond dismal this morning. Net sales of 200 MT for 2023–a marketing-year low–were down 98 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. 

Resistance: 168.00**, 174.75-175.25***

Pivot: 166.25

Support: 160.50-161.00**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (January – F)

January feeder cattle futures looked like they were going to firm but retreated to post a new closing low, though narrowly defending intraday lows that were posted on Monday.  At the current juncture, feeder cattle seem slightly more appealing than live cattle, which we don’t say all that often (from a trading standpoint).

Resistance: 223.00-224.52***, 232.20-233.50***

Pivot:  216.40-218.00 

Support: 209.00-210.00**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Lean Hogs

Technicals (February – G)

February lean hogs just chopped around yesterday, leaving most of the technical levels unchanged from the previous day.  Weekly export sales for pork showed net sales of 25,900 MT for 2023 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. 

Resistance:  74.00-74.500***

Pivot: 71.50-72.00

Support: 67.15-67.80***, 65.40-65.67**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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