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2-Year T-Note Sep '19 (ZTU19)

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2-Year T-Note Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Move Higher on Ramped-up Safe-Haven Demand from Middle East Geopolitical Risks

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) this morning is up +11 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3.9 bp to 1.857%. Dec T-notes are higher this morning on a flight-to-safety demand as gloal stock markets tumbled on heightened Middle East tensions. A drone atack Saturday at Saudi Arabia's key Abqaiq oil processing facility has ramped up Middle East tensions and may prompt a U.S. military response. President Trump on Sunday said the U.S. is "locked and loaded depending on verification" that Iran staged the drone attack and that he's awaiting word from Saudi Arabia about who it believed caused the attack and "under what terms we will proceed." A spokesman for the Saudi-led Yemen coalition said today that the drone strikes did not originate in Yemen and that preliminary findings show that Iranian weapons were used in the attacks on the Saudi Aramaco oil facilities. Global economic concerns also lifted T-note prices today after Chinese economic data signaled a slowdown in China's economy that is negative for global growth and dovish for Fed policy. China Aug industrial production rose by only +4.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.2% y/y and the smallest increase in 17-1/2 years. Also, China Aug retail sales rose +7.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +7.9% y/y. Positive carry-over from a rally in German bunds is also supporting gains in T-note prices today. Bunds rallied on dovish ECB comments after ECB Governing Council member Stournaras said today that "there ae strong monetary, economic, and financial arguments" suggesting that new ECB President Lagarde will continue with ultra-loose monetary stimulus when she takes office November 1. Also, ECB Executive Board member Lane said today that the ECB has the scope to buy bonds as part of its monetary stimulus "for an extended period of time" before hitting self-imposed limits. U.S. inflation expectations are on the rise due to today's sharp rally in oil prices, which is negative for T-note prices. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate today jumped to a 6-week high of 1.706% and is currently up +1.3 bp to 1.684%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations continues to recover from last Tuesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.494%.
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