The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.45% and posted a 3-week high. The dollar moved higher Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports on Nov payrolls and Dec consumer sentiment dampened speculation the Fed would begin cutting rates as soon as Q1. The dollar fell back from its best levels Friday after stocks recovered early losses and moved higher, curbing liquidity demand for the dollar. 

Friday’s U.S. economic news was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the dollar.  Nov nonfarm payrolls rose +199,000, stronger than expectations of +185,000.  Also, the Nov unemployment rate fell -0.2 to a 4-month low of 3.7%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 3.9%.  In addition, the University of Michigan U.S. Dec consumer sentiment index rose +8.1 to a 4-month high of 69.4, stronger than expectations of 62.0.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Dec 12-13 FOMC and a 0% chanc... Read more