Commodity Blog

May 13 2020

Using Grain Yield Estimates to Forecast Commodity Prices

Grain Yield Estimates

Agribusinesses and firms dealing in ag underwriting need the best information available to make strategic business decisions. Relying on the USDA’s yield estimates could mean that a firm is not providing clients with competitive marketing advice, or making lending and underwriting decisions on out-of-date or incomplete data. In this competitive market that simply isn’t good enough. It was clear to us that these cohorts needed access to information that enables them to make better decisions around USDA revisions, however the usual practices for collecting data and developing estimates for yield is costly, time consuming, and prone to errors. We knew there had to be a better way - so we rolled up our sleeves, got to work and developed the cmdty Yield Forecast Indexes.

Similar to the USDA’s yield forecasts, the cmdty Yield Forecast Indexes cover multiple geographical levels, from the county all the way up to a national level forecast, that provide users with broad-based coverage of yield expectations for Corn and Soybeans – with Wheat forecasts currently in development.

Grain Yield Forecasts

In our newly-released free whitepaper we provide an extensive look into how you can anticipate USDA estimate revisions to improve crop marketing and underwriting strategies by using Barchart’s cmdty Yield Forecast Indexes. Download the whitepaper here!

If you’re short on time here’s the cliff notes on how you can benefit from cmdty’s Yield Forecast Estimates:

    • Ag Lenders - Combine yield estimates with our cash grain forward curves to value collateral and potential farm income better than ever before.
    • Crop Insurers - Use our yield forecasts to more accurately understand risk - on a forward-looking and historical basis with daily forecasts available back to 2014.
    • Crop Marketers - With forecast data that is ahead of the curve, you can build robust pricing models for futures. Combine with our basis indexes to customize a crop marketing strategy.
    • Commodity Traders - Get accurate data ahead of the USDA reports. With daily updated yields starting at the county-level, you can be ahead of the curve and position yourself accordingly.

Take our word for it though - this whitepaper is worth the read! Readers will gain an understanding on how accurate yield forecast estimates can potentially help users: market grain better; underwrite smarter; lend more confidently; and potentially generate higher profits. We also explain how yields have changed over time with improvements in technology and provide insight into the performance of the USDA’s estimate accuracy and volatility.

Can’t get enough of our Yield Forecast Indexes? Luckily for you users can also subscribe to these estimates through our free report to get access to the benchmark national yield estimates and forecasts for corn and soybeans from all major field crop producing states every 2 weeks. We’ll also be discussing these Yield Forecast Indexes in our new 2020 Grain Market Update Livestream Series. To learn more about any of our services drop us a line at or reach out here.

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