Release Date: August 17, 2026
Dataset Type: Yield Models
Coverage: United States
Availability: Screen Display, API, SFTP, AWS S3

About the Dataset

Barchart’s new U.S. Cotton Yield Forecast Model delivers a daily, ground-up view of yield expectations across 12 of the largest cotton-producing states. Built at the county level and aggregated into state-level forecasts, the model combines machine learning with satellite-derived measures of soil moisture, land surface temperature, and vegetative growth, supported by ground-based weather and drought observations. 

Unlike models focused primarily on predicting average production, Barchart’s approach targets RMA yields. It emphasizes downside yield deviations, helping users identify emerging production risks before they are reflected in broader government estimates or commodity markets. The result is an independent, granular view of U.S. cotton yield risk designed to support crop insurance, physical supply planning, and futures market analysis.

Details

• Asset Class: Forecasting 
• Source: Barchart Proprietary Models
• Frequency: End-of-Day
• Historical Data: 2021
• Delivery Format: Screen Display (cmdtyView, Excel Add-in), SFTP (CSV), AWS S3 Cloud File Service (CSV)
• Dimensions: County-level, State-level
• Dataset Coverage: 12 of the largest cotton-producing states (AL, AR, GA, KS, LA, MO, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX)

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Dataset Components

Dataset Coverage

Search the current County-level yield coverage or State-level yield coverage using Barchart’s Data Explorer

Methodology

• Model reviews daily, county-level yield forecasts for upland cotton across major producing states
• Proprietary machine learning algorithms generate accurate, real-time predictions of crop conditions
• Algorithms incorporate satellite-derived measures of soil moisture, land surface temperature, and vegetative growth
• Satellite data is supported in the model by ground-based measurements of temperature, rainfall, and drought

Use Case Examples:

Crop Insurance Advantage:

• Forecasts specifically tailored to crop insurance providers by targeting RMA yields and focusing on predicting negative weather impact
• Get an early look at potential payout risk at a very granular level
• Improve management of cash reserves in anticipation of payouts
• Partner with Barchart on new shallow loss or parametric contracts with our independent yield forecasts as a benchmark

Futures Trading Edge:

• Anticipate WASDE and other USDA yield revisions before they're released, using granular, ground-up forecasts to inform your national production view
• Trade ahead of ICE cotton futures by tracking county- and state-level deviations that signal where national yield estimates may be headed, particularly across Texas, Georgia, and other key Belt states
• Identify emerging weather-driven risk premiums, like drought stress in West Texas, before they're fully priced into futures

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How to Access

US Cotton Yield Forecast data is now available through:

• cmdtyView: Market Intelligence with AI analysis, visualization, and multi-asset analytics.
• Digital Information Board: Always-on delayed quotes and charts displayed with relevant news in English or Portuguese.
• Market Replay API: Application Programming Interface for access to Barchart’s point-in-time historical database.
• OnDemand API: Done-for-you market data APIs.
• Market Replay Enterprise Cloud: Bulk file service via SFTP/S3, delivered enterprise-wide.

Access to the US Cotton Yield dataset is available through your existing Barchart platform or integration. Contact your Barchart representative to learn more, request access via cmdtyView, review sample data, or schedule a working session to integrate into your workflows

To access, contact Barchart’s data team to schedule a consultation

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