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The View from the Grain Elevator: What the Front Lines Are Telling Us
Agriculture
01
July
2026

The View from the Grain Elevator: What the Front Lines Are Telling Us

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The team who cover Barchart's agricultural clients across the Midwest are on the phone with  grain elevators all day. They got together recently to compare notes on what they're hearing from the front line. The phones came up first.

At a grain elevator they never quite stop. A farmer wants a bid, another wants to know whether the place is open on Sunday, another just wants to talk the market over with someone who knows him. The ringing is the sound of a business whose customers still want a human on the other end of the line.

"People want to talk to people," says Zachary Hoffman, Commodities Account Manager on Barchart's U.S. commodities team. That contact is the heart of the grain business. The opportunity, as he sees it, is to let a mobile app or an automated text handle the routine questions, a cash bid or the Sunday hours, the way a lot of farmers now prefer, so the team's time goes to the conversations only a person can have.

Pull on that thread and the same handful of themes turn up, in conversation after conversation. The people who run these businesses are being tested on several fronts at once: by their costs, by the markets, by AI technology they are still working out, and by a thinning bench of the people who do the actual trading. And they are meeting each one with more invention than worry.

Start with costs. The companies that sell seed, fertilizer and chemicals have spent years consolidating, leaving a co-op fewer suppliers to choose from and little room to push back on price. "Prices of inputs continue to go up regardless of what the commodity price on the revenue side is doing," says Andrew Ward, Barchart's Head of U.S. Commodities. With grain prices tight on the other side of the ledger, nobody can win on price alone. "No one's really able to compete on price alone right now," says Ashley Koenig, Head of Commodities Account Management.

So co-ops are competing on something harder to copy: the relationship. They are leaning into service, market advice and loyalty, and a few have turned genuinely inventive. One elevator offered Carhartt sweatshirts to the first 100 farmers who submitted an offer. Another gave away a hot dog and a bottle of water at harvest to anyone who carried a scale ticket into the co-op store. When price is off the table, the winner is whoever the farmer thinks of first.

Then there are the markets. The swings have spread well past grain, into soft commodities and energy, and the supply chains beneath them have not settled. "There's been a lot of volatility across all market spaces, not just ag commodities, but soft commodities, energy commodities," says Cody Gerlach, Director of Strategic Sales, Commercial Grain. Volatility like that puts a premium on moving quickly. Firms that have long run their risk on spreadsheets and phone calls increasingly want the speed to shape their position in the market rather than take whatever price it hands them.

The third pressure is the one in every headline and still taking shape in most boardrooms: artificial intelligence. "I'm actually seeing it all over the board," Gerlach says. Some clients are well into it; others are still circling the question. What separates them often has less to do with the technology itself than with a question of control: who holds the data. One large grain company has barred its employees from outside AI tools, wary that company financials typed into a public chatbot could end up exposed. The same company has no objection to Carl, the AI assistant built into Barchart's cmdtyView, because that data never leaves the platform.

The other half of the question is human, and here some operators are getting ahead of it. One operation, further along than most, is retraining its bookkeepers and back-office staff for new roles rather than cutting them as software absorbs the routine work. "I thought this was a very noble approach," Koenig said. Most firms are earlier in the process. "We're still in the first inning of the AI revolution," Gerlach said.

The last pressure has been created over time. Elevators are running short of experienced merchandisers, the people who buy and sell the physical grain, and the bench has been thinning for more than two decades with little succession planning behind it. The fixes are characteristically resourceful: elevators sharing or outsourcing a single merchandiser across several companies, or hiring remotely to widen the field. One merchandiser now works from home most of the week and drives two hours each way on the days he comes in.

That only raises the value of the hours the remaining traders have, which is where the ringing phones come back around. Every bid and every are-you-open-on-Sunday question lands on a desk with fewer people behind it than before, and every one of them is a chance to give that time back. The grain people, in Hoffman's words, "can get their time back if they market their business differently."

For all four pressures, the people who run these businesses carry a striking calm. The grain trade has lived through tariffs, oil shocks and fertilizer shocks before, and adapted every time. "Everyone's got stories they'll tell you about the Russian grain robbery of the early '70s.”

Underneath the calm sits one question older and plainer than any of the four: whether the farmer is going to make money. The input bills, the risk tools, the AI experiments and the half-staffed trading desks all run back to it. And each of them is, in its way, the industry's answer, the everyday work of adapting to provide value to a client base of farmers who have slim to no margins in today’s operating environment. That is the conversation our team has in elevators across the Midwest, every day.