Stocks Sharply Higher as President Trump Seeks to End Iran War

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +1.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.22%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +1.14%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +1.29%.

Stocks settled sharply higher on Monday as crude oil prices plunged more than -10% after President Trump said strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would be postponed for five days following the start of talks with Iran to end the war.  Mr. Trump said the US held productive talks on a comprehensive resolution of hostilities in the Middle East and that the discussion would continue throughout the week. 

Stocks fell back from their best levels Monday afternoon when a statement was released from a military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaee, that said the war will continue until all damages to Iran are compensated, all economic sanctions are lifted, and legal international guarantees are obtained to prevent US interference in Iran.

Global bond yields fell from their highs on Monday and turned lower, a supportive factor for stocks, on news of a possible end to the war in Iran. Bond yields had risen on concerns that soaring energy prices from the Iran war would stoke inflation.  The 10-year T-note yield fell from an 8-month high on Monday at 4.44% and fell -5 bp to 4.33%.  Also, the 10-year German Bund yield fell from a 14.75-year high of 3.08%, and the 10-year UK Gilt yield fell from a 17.75-year high of 5.12%.

Stock index futures initially fell sharply in overnight trading after President Trump gave Iran until Monday evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  President Trump on Saturday issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to "fully open" the Strait of Hormuz or the US will obliterate Iran’s various power stations.  The ultimatum, which expires at 7:44 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, was met with harsh rhetoric from Iran, with one senior Iranian official saying that if such an attack were to occur, the headquarters and assets of financial entities that buy US Treasury bonds are "legitimate targets" for attack. Iran also said that it would mine the “entire Persian Gulf” and block all access routes through the Strait if its power plants were attacked.

Iran carried out fresh strikes across the Persian Gulf over the weekend, with the UAE reporting drone and missile attacks on Monday.  The International Energy Agency said that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran has attacked about 20 vessels in the Persian Gulf and near Hormuz since the conflict began.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The markets are discounting an 8% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Monday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 recovered from a 6-month low and closed up +1.33%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 6-month low and closed down -3.63%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 tumbled to a 2.75-month low and closed down -3.48%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Monday closed up by +13.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -5.2 bp to 4.328%.  June T-notes recovered from a 9.5-month nearest-futures low on Monday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell from an 8-month high of 4.441%.  T-notes recovered from overnight losses and moved higher today after WTI crude oil prices fell more than -10% when President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, pending talks to end the war in Iran.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1.5-week low of 2.311% on Monday, a supportive factor for T-notes.

T-note yields have risen sharply over the past three weeks on concern that surging energy prices from the Iran war will boost inflation and even force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. 

European government bond yields gave up early gains on Monday and moved lower.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from a 14.75-year high of 3.077% and finished down -3.9 bp to 3.005%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 17.75-year high of 5.121% and finished down -7.4 bp to 4.02-%.

The Eurozone Mar consumer confidence index fell -4.0 to a nearly 2.5-year low of -16.3, weaker than expectations of -14.2.

ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said, "The ECB can do little about the inflation spike in the next few months, but if we judge that the risk of inflation remaining above our target for a prolonged period is significant, we will act with appropriate forcefulness to bring inflation back down to our target."

Swaps are discounting a 68% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks moved higher on Monday, a supportive factor for the overall market. Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +3%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up more than +2%.  Also, Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) closed up more than +1%.  In addition, Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up +0.35%, and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up +0.30%.

Airline and cruise line stocks rallied on Monday as crude oil prices sank by more than 10%, potentially lowering fuel costs and boosting corporate profits.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up more than +6%, and Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed up more than +5%.  Also, United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +4%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +2%. 

Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies moved higher on Monday, recovering some of last week’s sharp losses.  ASML Holding NV (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO), and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +3%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +2%.  Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +1%. 

Home builders and building suppliers gained on Monday as the 10-year T-note yield fell -5 bp, a supportive factor for housing demand.  Builders Firstsource (BLDR), DR Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), and KB Home (KBH) closed up more than +4%.  Also, PulteGroup (PHM), Home Depot (HD), and Lennar (LEN) closed up more than +3%. 

Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) closed up more than +20% after saying data from a mid-stage trial showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after saying its Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record for the Pentagon.

Insmed (INSM) closed up more than +5% after saying its study of its Arikayce treatment in patients with lung disease met its primary and all multiplicity-controlled secondary endpoints. 

Synopsys (SNPS) closed up more than +3% on news that Elliot Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the company and plans to push for changes.

Valvoline (VVV) closed up more than +2% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $42.

DraftKings (DKNG) closed up more than +1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.

Estee Lauder (EL) closed down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 on news that it is nearing a deal to acquire Puig Brands.

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) closed down more than -5% after Politico reported Senator Hawley is querying the firm for its mortgage credit scoring.

Thomson Reuters (TRI) closed down more than -2% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

Crown Castle (CCI) closed down more than -1% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

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