Stocks Erase Early Gains on Iran War Anxiety

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.30%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.19%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.32%.

Stocks gave up an early advance today and are trading mixed after crude oil prices recovered from early losses, trading little changed, as the war in Iran shows no signs of abating.  The Wall Street Journal reported today that the US is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East as Iran steps up attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.

Stocks initially moved higher today when WTI crude oil gave up overnight gains and fell more than -2% after the US granted a temporary waiver allowing buyers to take Russian oil cargoes already at sea.  The US Treasury granted a month-long waiver to import Russian oil loaded before Thursday, covering Russian crude oil and fuel on about 30 tankers carrying at least 19 million barrels.  Crude was also briefly pressured after the Financial Times reported that France and Italy had opened talks with Iran to negotiate a deal to guarantee the safe passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Crude prices rallied in overnight trading after US officials said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, an effort that could further complicate US efforts to restart shipping in the waterway.  Despite the US destroying most large ships in the Iranian navy used to lay mines, Iran began using smaller boats for the operation on Thursday, according to a US official briefed on the intelligence.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The latest rhetoric from President Trump and Iranian leader Khamenei suggests there will be no immediate easing in the war that has disrupted energy shipments in the Middle East and spurred concerns about rising inflation.  Global bond yields have soared this week on inflation fears, with the German 10-year bund yield rising to a 2.25-year high of 2.99% today and the 10-year T--note yield climbing to a 5-week high at 4.28%. 

Crude oil prices remain underpinned despite attempts to boost global supplies.  The IEA on Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. 

Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks.  Jan personal spending, Jan JOLTS job openings, and the University of Michigan US Mar consumer sentiment index all rose more than expected.  However, Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, were weaker than expected.  Also, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and the Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose by the most in 1.75 years.

US Jan personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.  Jan personal income rose +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

The US Jan core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.1% y/y, right on expectations and the highest in 1.75 years.

US Jan capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

US Q4 GDP was revised downward to +0.7% (q/q annualized) from the previously reported +1.4% as Q4 personal consumption was revised lower to +2.0% from the previously reported +2.4%.

The University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell -1.1 to 55.5, stronger than the 54.8 expected.

The University of Michigan's US Mar 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged from Feb at 3.4%, below expectations of a rise to 3.7%. The Mar 5-10 year inflation expectations unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.3% in Feb, weaker than expectations of an increase to 3.4%.

US Jan JOLTS job openings rose +396,000 to 6.946 million, stronger than expectations of 6.750 million.

Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 98% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 495 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.24%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.82%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.16%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +3 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.255%.  June T-notes are slightly higher today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell from a 5-week high of 4.279%.  Today’s US economic news, which showed Q4 GDP revised lower and Jan capital goods new orders climbing less than expected, was supportive of T-notes.  Gains in T-notes were limited after Jan JOLTS job openings, and the University of Michigan Mar consumer sentiment index rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy.  Also, a rebound in crude oil prices from early losses to higher on the day weighed on T-note prices.

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield fell from a 2.25-year high of 2.992% and is down -0.4 bp to 2.953%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 6.25-month high of 4.812% and is up +0.9 bp to 4.782%.

UK Jan GDP was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

UK Jan manufacturing production rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Chip stocks and AI-infrastructure companies are moving higher today, a supportive factor for the broader market.  Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +4%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Lam Research (LRCX), and  Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +2%.  Also, Applied Materials (AMAT), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Intel (INTC), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +4% at a 1-week high.  MARA Holdings (MARA) is up more than +12%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +6%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Coinbase Global (COIN) are up more than +3%. 

Fertilizer stocks are retreating today, giving back some of this week’s sharp gains.  Intrepid Potash (IPI) is down more than -7%, CF Industries Holdings (CF) is down more than -6%, and Mosaic (MOS) is down more than -4%. 

Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) is up more than +12% after an SEC filing showed Chairman Morits purchased 3.47 million shares through an associated entity between March 3 and March 11.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) is up more than +2% after it expects revenue growth of 16% in Q1 and said the company’s “diversified financial model continues to deliver.” 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the stock to $120 from $100.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) is up more than +1% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $64. 

Air Products and Chemicals (APD) is up more than +1% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $325.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after it forecast full-year comparable sales will increase 2.5% to 3.5%, below the consensus of 3.5%. 

EverCommerce (EVCM) is down more than -10% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $145.5 million to $148.5 million, well below the consensus of $151 million.

Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after CEO Narayen said he will resign and remain in his post until a successor has been appointed. 

Insulet (PODD) is down more than 5% after it issued a voluntary recall of some Omnipod 5 Pods due to a manufacturing issue that led to 18 reports of serious adverse events.

ServiceTitan (TTAN) is down more than -4% after reporting a Q4 EPS loss of -44 cents, wider than the consensus of -41 cents.

Meta Platforms (META) is down more than -2% after the New York Times reported that the company’s latest AI model has underperformed expectations and will be delayed. 

Earnings Reports(3/13/2026)

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc (FDMT), Actuate Therapeutics Inc (ACTU), AirSculpt Technologies Inc (AIRS), AlTi Global Inc (ALTI), American Vanguard Corp (AVD), Avidity Biosciences Inc (RNAM), Better Home & Finance Holding (BETR), Bit Digital Inc (BTBT), Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY), Buckle Inc/The (BKE), CapsoVision Inc (CV), Citizens Inc/TX (CIA), Emerald Holding Inc (EEX), Eve Holding Inc (EVEX), GoHealth Inc (GOCO), Gossamer Bio Inc (GOSS), John Marshall Bancorp Inc (JMSB), LENSAR Inc (LNSR), MeiraGTx Holdings plc (MGTX), NET Lease Office Properties (NLOP), Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI), Value Line Inc (VALU), Waldencast plc (WALD).