Soybeans Double Digits Lower, Fading Wednesday Rally

Bean futures are double digits (12 to 15 cents) lower in early Thursday CME action, offsetting late session gains from Wednesday on wetter Argentine weather models. Yesterday beans rallied in the afternoon to close with digit gains of 12 1/4 to 14 1/2 cents. Preliminary OI data suggests that was mostly net new buying with 9,132 more contracts opened. USDA raised the estimated full year cash average price for soybeans by 50 cents to $12.60. Soymeal futures ended the day $3.10 to $3.70/ton higher. The cash average price for soymeal was increased $45 higher to $375/ton, but USDA left the cash price for soy oil at 65 cents/lb. Going home on Wednesday, soy oil futures were 47 to 50 points higher. 

Weekly soybean export sales through January 6 are estimated between 400k MT and 1.2 MMT ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. New crop bookings are estimated to come in below 450k MT. Soymeal export sales are estimated between 10k and 350k MT. BO bookings are expected to be reported at less than 25k MT for the week. 

December 1st soybean stocks were 3.149 bbu, when the trade was looking to see 3.127 bbu.  The NASS crop production report average bean yield was above December’s 51.2 bpa,  @ 51.4 bpa. USDA increased projected ending stocks by 10 mbu to 350 million bushels due to the larger production. Annual crush and exports were UNCH this month at 2.190 bbu and 2.050 bbu respectively. 

USDA’s WAOB went with 139 MMT for Brazil and 46.5 MMT for Argentine soybean production. However, projected Brazilian soybean exports were not reduced. Yesterday, CONAB saw Brazilian soy production at 140.5 MMT. The trade average guess for Argentina was 48.2 MMT, while the Ag Attache saw 46.5 MMT. Global soybean carryout was below the pre report estimate at 95.2 MMT mostly reflecting the larger than expected South American production cuts. 

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.91 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents, did not trade overnight

Nearby Cash  was $13.57 3/8 on Wednesday, up 12 3/8 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.99 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents, down 13 ¾ this morning

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $13.12 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents, down 12  this morning

New Crop Cash  was $12.53 ¾ on Wednesday, up 12 5/8 cents,