Beans Firm to Higher at Midday

After the initial report drops soybeans are working back higher for midday with the board fractionally red to a penny higher. USDA raised the cash average price for soybeans by 50 cents to $12.60. Soymeal prices are trading $1.90 to $2.40 in the black at midday. The cash average price for soymeal was $45 higher to $375/ton. USDA left the cash price for soy oil at 65 cents/lb, as the board is working 4 to 10 points weaker at midday. USDA reported a large new crop soybean sale to China this morning for 132k MT. 

December 1st soybean stocks were 3.149 bbu, when the trade was looking to see 3.127 bbu. That implied a Q1 use of 1.543 bbu, when again the implied pre report average trade guess was 1.563. 

The NASS crop production report showed the average bean yield was above December’s 51.2 bpa, but inline with estimates with 51.4 bpa reported. With 0.1m fewer acres, that had total 21/22 output at 4.435 billion bushels. Figuring carryout off that level raised stocks by 10 mbu to 350 million bushels. That was inline with pre-report estimates the Dec 340 mbu figure reflecting the supply. Residual was 1 mbu higher, though crush and exports were steady at 2.190 bbu and 2.050 bbu respectively. 

For South American bean output, USDA’s WAOB went with 139 MMT for Brazil and 46.5 MMT for Argentina. Yesterday, CONAB saw Brazilian soy production at 140.5 MMT, while the trade was looking for USDA to go to 141.2. The trade average guess for Argentina was 48.2 MMT, while the Ag Attache saw 46.5 MMT. Global soybean carryout was below the pre report estimate at 95.2 MMT mostly reflecting the larger SoAM production cuts than expected. 

Jan 22 Soybeans  are at $13.73, down 3 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $13.42 3/4, down 3 1/8 cents,

Mar 22 Soybeans  are at $13.83 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $12.99 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

New Crop Cash  is at $12.39 7/8, down 1 1/4 cents,