Stocks Tumble as Crude Oil Soars and Bond Yields Rise

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -1.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -2.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.78%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -1.84%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -1.82%.

Stock indexes are sharply lower today, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2.5-month low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping to a 2.75-month low, and the Nasdaq 100 sliding to a 2-week low. 

Global stock markets are plunging, and crude oil prices and bond yields are soaring as the war in Iran enters its fourth day with no sign of de-escalation, bolstering fears of a lengthy disruption to energy markets and a surge in inflation.

WTI crude oil (CLJ26) is up more than +7% at an 8.5-month high after an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told state TV that “we will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran's coast and handles a fifth of the world's oil.  Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Also, falling debris from an intercepted Iranian drone caused a major fire at the United Arab Emirates' major oil-trading hub, Fujairah, one of the largest oil storage centers in the Middle East.  European natural gas prices are up +33% today at a 3-year high after Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack.  The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply.

President Trump said Monday that combat operations against Iran could last for weeks until all objectives were completed.  President Trump has called for Iran’s leaders to capitulate, but Iran’s security chief said that it has no intention of negotiating with the US.

Global bond yields are soaring today, weighing on stocks amid the potentially inflationary impact of surging energy prices.  The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 2.5-week high of 2.814%, the 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 3-week high of 4.536%, and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-week high of 4.12%.

This week's market focus will be on US-Iran war news, corporate earnings, and economic news.  On Wednesday, the Feb ADP employment change is expected to increase by +40,000. Also, the Feb ISM services index is expected to slip by -0.3 to 53.5.  In addition, the Fed releases its Beige Book.  On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +3,000 to 215,000.  Also, Q4 nonfarm productivity is expected to be up +1.8%, and Q4 unit labor costs are expected to be up +2.0%.  On Friday, Feb nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +60,000, and the Feb unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.  Also, Feb average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y.  In addition, Feb retail sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m and Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to remain unchanged m/m.

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are sharply lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-month low and is down -3.86%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10.5-year high and closed down -1.43%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 3-week low and closed down -3.06%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -16 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +7.1 bp to 4.106%.  June T-notes tumbled to a 2-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 2-week high of 4.111%.  Soaring energy prices today have sparked inflation concerns and are weighing on T-notes prices, with WTI crude oil up more than +7% at an 8.5-month high.  The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.318%.

European government bond yields are moving higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.814% and is up +7.8 bp to 2.790%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 3-week high of 4.553% and is up +14.3 bp to 4.517%.

The Eurozone Feb CPI rose +1.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y.  Feb core CPI rose +2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y.

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a +25 bp rate increase by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Magnificent Seven technology stocks are lower today.  Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA)

are down more than -2%.  Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -1% as US officials are considering caps on the number of AI accelerators Nvidia can export to any one Chinese company. Also,  Alphabet (GOOGL) is down more than -1%, Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.67%, Meta Platforms (META) is down -0.54%, and Apple (AAPL) is down -0.43%. 

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today, weighing on the broader market.  Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -5%.  Also,  Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) and Intel (INTC) are down more than -4%, and Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Lam Research (LRCX), Analog Devices (ADI), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are down more than -3%.  In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are down more than -2%.

Airline stocks are under pressure for a second day today as crude oil prices surged to an 8.5-month high, which will boost jet fuel prices and cut into airlines’ profits.  Alaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -5%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are down more than -4%.  Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -3%.

Homebuilders are retreating today after the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-week high, which will push mortgage rates higher and may curb home sales prospects.  Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are down more than -3%.  Also, KB Home (KBH) and PulteGroup (PHM) are down more than -2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are sliding today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -4%.  Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) and Strategy (MSTR) are down more than -5%.  Also, MARA Holdings (MARA), Coinbase Global (COIN), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -4%.

MongoDB (MDB) is down more than -25% after forecasting 2027 revenue of $2.86 billion to $2.90 billion, below the consensus of $2.90 billion. 

Sea Lt. (SE) is down more than -23% after reporting Q4 net income of$410.9 million, weaker than the consensus of $442 million. 

Surgery Partners (SGRY) is down more than -20% after forecasting full-year revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, well below the consensus of $3.56 billion. 

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is down more than 16% after forecasting Q4 revenue of $425 million to 435 million, the midpoint below the consensus of $430.5 million. 

ON Holding AG (ONON) is down more than -11% after forecasting full-year net sales at constant currencies up +23%, below the consensus of +25.8%. 

Best Buy (BBY) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.61, stronger than the consensus of $2.46.

Pinterest (PINS) is up more than +5% after authorizing a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program and announcing a $1 billion strategic investment from Elliot Investment Management.

Target (TGT) is up more than +4% after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $7.50 to $8.50, the midpoint above the consensus of $7.61.

Earnings Reports(3/3/2026)

AutoZone Inc (AZO), Best Buy Co Inc (BBY), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD), Gitlab Inc (GTLB), On Holding AG (ONON), Ross Stores Inc (ROST), Thor Industries Inc (THO), Versant Media Group Inc (VSNT), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).