How Did Investments in the Corn Market Do Over the Summer Quarter?

• Based on the advice of Peter Lynch, my long-term investments tend to run in the Grains sector. 

• Of these markets, my choice is Corn based on how it behaves both technically and fundamentally. 

• Cash corn, December corn futures, and corn ETFs performed well over the past year, particularly the 2026 summer quarter. 

As you likely recall, when it comes to investing I follow the advice of Peter Lynch and invest in what I know. Given the fact I’ve watched, studied, written about, and argued over the Grains sector more than any other set of markets the last 5 decades, it should come as no surprise my investment strategy of choice is grains. I use a variety of tools, from futures and options, including spreads of either or both, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). And while I would like to have cash grain as a portfolio option, I’m certain my wife would frown on storing tons of physical grain in our suburban basement. You will also likely recall of the various grain markets, my go-to is King Corn, partly because it is relatively docile compared to the others (its nickname the Treasury Bond of the Grains sector well-earned) but also because it follows its technical and fundamental factors relatively well – usually. With this as a background, let’s take a look at how three main markets of corn performed this recently concluded summer quarter (June-July-August). 

Even though I don’t own cash corn, let’s start there. I’ve long argued that a good cash index can be used as the intrinsic value, or market value within the Economic Law of Supply and Demand (the market price is the intersection of supply and demand curves). At the end of May, the Barchart National Corn Price Index (ZCPAUS.CM) was priced at roughly $4.0750. From there it dropped to a June settlement near $3.8550, before rocketing to an August close of about $4.9150. This was a quarterly gain in value of 84.0 cents with a quarterly return of 20.6%. Additionally, this was a gain of 24% for the 2026 calendar year and 28% over the past 12 months. However, if we consider what it would cost, storage and interest, to hold cash grain in storage for 12 months, roughly $1.25 per bushel, then cash corn doesn’t look as good from an investment point of view.

If we want to avoid the cost of holding cash bushels (tonnes) in commercial storage, then we can do it on paper using futures. Here, if we want to avoid the costs and pitfalls of rolling from one contract to the next or at least limit the number of times we have to roll forward in a long-term investment position, we can look at the more heavily traded December futures contract. Those who have been following me over the years might recall I first went long Dec corn at the end of August 2024 based on a technical bullish spike reversal on the continuous monthly chart. The next buy signal occurred at the end of August 2025, again in the form of a spike reversal. This position would’ve been rolled to Dec26. With that as background, Dec26 (ZCZ26) showed a 12-month gain (September through August) of 78.5 cents (17%), a 2026 gain of 77.25 cents (16.8%), and a summer quarter gain of 62.75 cents (13.2%). 

A side note on the futures market discussion: You recall the story of the fund/trader who bought 500,000,000 bushels of the November $5.50/$6.00 corn spread at 4.5 cents if I recall. This spread closed August priced at 10.5 cents. Nicely done. 

As for ETFs, the one I track is the Teucrium CORN fund. While there have been some potential technical potholes along the way, the bottom line is the fund finished the summer quarter with a gain of 11.9%, was up 13.4% for 2026, and had added 14.2% over the past 12 months.