August’s Top Commodity Performers and Underperformers

In the commodities asset class in August 2026, Ethereum was up more than 30%, and Bitcoin, cocoa, and world sugar futures gained more than 20%. Silver, heating oil, crack spreads, corn, CBOT wheat, and cotton were up between 10% and 20%. ICE FCOJ was the only commodity to post a double-digit percentage decline. The DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Russell 2000 indices were mostly higher. The long bond futures edged higher. The September dollar index futures fell by 0.40%. The long bond futures rose by 0.40%. A lower dollar index and slightly lower interest rates were a bullish signal for commodity prices, and most raw material futures posted gains. Long-term interest rates edged lower, even though the Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the most recent FOMC meeting.  

Energy rallies

The lack of a settlement between Iran and the United States, along with a tightening of the economic noose around Iran, drove energy prices higher. At the end of August, the hostilities were escalating as the U.S. attempt to use economic weapons has caused backlash from Iran. Crude oil, oil products, crack spreads, natural gas, Chicago ethanol swaps, and Rotterdam coal posted gains in August.  

The monthly October NYMEX WTI crude oil futures chart shows that the price rose 5.24% in August. Brent crude oil, the benchmark for Middle Eastern petroleum, slightly underperformed the WTI, posting a 2.82% monthly gain on the ICE November contract. Crude oil prices remained volatile and choppy in August, moving higher and lower on events in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz. 

Crack spreads reflect the refining margins for processing crude oil into gasoline and distillate products. The gasoline crack spread moved 14.86% higher in August, while the distillate crack spread posted a 15.37% gain. Prices at the pump have a long lag behind crude oil prices. Moreover, elevated crack spreads have caused products to far outperform crude oil prices, contributing to stellar earnings at oil refining companies. 

October Chicago ethanol swaps, the biofuel additive to U.S. gasoline, rose 6.54% for the month, while coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, rose 7.40% in August. Meanwhile, October U.S. natural gas futures prices moved 5.31% higher as natural gas moves towards the peak season beginning in late November. European natural gas futures prices moved substantially higher in July on Middle Eastern supply concerns. U.K. natural gas futures prices for October delivery and natural gas futures prices in the Netherlands for October delivery rallied in August as concerns about supplies this winter increased. The Middle East continued to drive European natural gas prices higher, which could put upward pressure on U.S. natural gas as European demand for U.S. LNG rises.  

Agricultural commodity prices rally in August

The growing season in the Northern Hemisphere continued in August, and the harvest is approaching. The grain and oilseed markets have faced fertilizer shortages due to issues at the Strait of Hormuz and increasing conflicts around the Black Sea ports; prices posted substantial gains in August. New crop November Soybean futures prices moved 8.46% higher, while new crop December corn futures rose 15.89%, and December CBOT soft red winter wheat futures moved 17.72% higher. Russia and Ukraine are significant wheat producers. Corn and beans rallied as ethanol and biodiesel prices moved higher with crude oil and oil products. 

Soft commodities turned in mixed results in August, but were mostly higher. December cocoa rose 22.31%, and October world sugar futures rose 21.49%. Cocoa’s price rallied amid concerns over West African weather and supply, while sugar has followed developments in the Middle East, as Brazil depends on sugarcane for ethanol production. Sugar followed crude oil and gasoline prices in August, rising to the highest price since April 2025. Cotton futures for December delivery rose 13.88% in August on a growing deficit in the global cotton market. December Arabica coffee futures edged only 1.00% lower. The volatile November FCOJ futures were the worst-performing soft and agricultural commodity, falling 13.76% in August. 

Lumber and animal proteins fall, while metals rally

Physical lumber futures for November delivery fell 9.86% in August as the construction season winds down over the coming months and interest rates remain elevated, slowing demand for new homes. 

The 2026 peak grilling season began in late May and runs through early September. Cattle prices fell in August as the off-season begins next week. The live and feeder cattle futures for October delivery fell 6.41% and 5.46%, respectively, in August. Meanwhile, the lean hog futures for October delivery declined by 1.38% for the month ending on Monday, August 31.  

Precious metal prices soared in 2025 and early 2026, but they ran out of upside steam in late January. In August, prices recovered.  

Gold, the leading precious metal, moved 9.12% higher in August. The volatile silver futures market rose 14.65%. NYMEX palladium futures rose 6.18%, while NYMEX platinum futures moved 8.17% higher. Precious metals recovered after finding bottoms in June and July.

Copper, the leading nonferrous metal, experienced a 1.94% gain in the December futures contract. December COMEX copper rose to a new record high of $6.8850 on August 6, 2026.

Nonferrous metals on the London Metal Exchange posted across-the-board gains. LME three-month copper forwards moved higher in August. LME aluminum three-month forwards rallied amid turmoil in the Middle East.  LME nickel forwards were lower, LME lead forwards rallied, LME zinc prices posted an impressive gain, and LME tin forwards edged marginally lower in August. 

Spotlight on world sugar and CBOT wheat

World sugar #11 and CBOT soft red winter wheat futures posted over 20% gains in August. Sugar rallied as it is an ingredient in Brazilian ethanol, and wheat as Russia and Ukraine are leading wheat-producing countries. 

The monthly CBOT soft red winter wheat futures chart shows the grain broke out of its bearish trend in August as prices rose above critical technical resistance at the May 2024 high of $7.20 per bushel. The wheat futures reached $7.9025, the highest price since February 2023, and closed August at $7.74 per bushel. Fighting around the Black Sea ports has fueled supply fears in the wheat market. The war between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate in August with no end in sight. 

Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of free-market sugarcane. While the U.S. processes corn into ethanol, Brazilian ethanol is a byproduct of sugarcane. 

The continuous monthly chart of ICE world sugar #11 futures shows that sugar futures rose 21.49% in August to the highest price since April 2025. In last month’s spotlight on crude oil, I wrote, “expect markets across all asset classes to continue to reflect the daily volatility in crude oil futures.” Sugar is a critical ingredient in biofuel, so it is correlated with oil and gasoline. Demand for sugar-based ethanol from Brazil pushed prices higher in August. Moreover, adverse weather, smaller crops, higher export demand, and the potential for a Super El Niño were bullish for sugar prices, which closed August at over 17.8 cents per pound, a new high monthly close in 2026 and the highest monthly closing level since March 2025. 

Factors to watch in September 2026

As commodities move into September, they face continued uncertainty in the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Seasonality could support lower prices for meats and gasoline as the grilling and driving seasons approach their end. We could see buying in natural gas as fall and winter approach and European prices are rising, pushing U.S. LNG demand higher. 

The situation in the Middle East will continue to dictate the path of least resistance for energy and other commodity prices. Crack spreads remain elevated, translating to high oil product prices. The war between Russia and Ukraine and the situation with Iran have pushed grain and oilseed prices higher, which could continue in September and over the coming months. 

The November U.S. midterm elections should impact markets, as the administration’s policy initiatives depend on the outcome. Fractures within the opposition party between middle-of-the-road Democrats and Democratic Socialists could add to uncertainty during the election season as the DSA supports a total ideological remaking of the United States from a capitalist to a socialist country. 

Cryptocurrencies have broken higher from their consolidation pattern, but they remain at levels that could cause two-way volatility. The dollar index has drifted lower, and bonds remain in a trading range but are not far from the bottom end at a multi-year low, which is a mixed signal for commodities. 

The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscapes will determine the path of least resistance for U.S. stocks. Bonds have not broken out of their long-term consolidation pattern, but interest rates remain elevated, and the long bond futures are dangerously close to critical technical support at the October 2023 low of 107-04. Interest rates depend on inflation and the growing U.S. debt, which is now over $40 trillion. 

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in September 2026 and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed. The volatility creates opportunities, but any new trade or investment requires careful attention to risk-reward dynamics to enhance profits and protect capital. Be careful over the coming weeks, as September and October are historically very volatile months in markets across all asset classes.