SpaceX Has an Emerging Challenger in Space. Here’s the One Thing Rivals Can’t Copy.

SpaceX (SPCX) has set a launch date for its plan to run artificial intelligence (AI) data centers in orbit, and I think it deserves more attention. CEO Elon Musk said the company’s first AI satellites, powered by Nvidia (NVDA) chips, will start launching in the final quarter of 2027, and he believes that the network will reach real scale in 2028. Each satellite is built to work like a data center in space. Musk described the design as simpler, cheaper, denser, and lighter than a normal server rack on the ground. As I previously covered, SpaceX eventually wants to fly as many as 1 million of these satellites. The satellites are expected to handle heavy AI workloads from orbit, with Nvidia named as the exclusive chip supplier.

SpaceX is not the only company chasing orbital data centers. Startups like Starcloud are working toward the same goal. But SpaceX holds one advantage none of them can copy: It owns the rockets that rivals depend on to reach orbit.

The problem for a company like Starcloud lands specifically in 2029. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rideshare slots are expected to dry up beyond late 2028 as the company shifts toward Starship. Starcloud has already said it may not be able to secure SpaceX launches that year. The company expects everyone to be competing for Starship, and SpaceX will understandably prioritize its own satellites first. That leaves SpaceX acting as both a launch provider and a competitor to the firms renting space on its rockets.

That is the quiet advantage buried in SpaceX’s plan. Anyone else who wants to build in orbit still has to get there first. For now, the road to space runs through SpaceX.

About SpaceX Stock 

SpaceX provides satellite-based broadband services, operating through three segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence. The company’s space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Meanwhile, the connectivity segment operates a broadband data and communications network powered by Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprise, and government customers around the world. Finally, the AI segment operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning Grok, AI solutions for consumers, and social media platform X. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Starbase, Texas.

Since going public, SPCX stock has fallen 18%, underperforming the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) over the same period. The underperformance has been driven by investor concerns over the company’s high valuation, heavy capital spending, and ongoing operating losses. Moreover, SPCX stock has been fairly volatile, climbing from roughly $108 on Aug. 5 to $146 by Aug. 12, then dropping down to $134 on Aug. 20 before climbing back up to current levels near $141.

SpaceX went public in June 2026, so its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios have no meaningful averages to compare against. The company’s near-term earnings are very small while it spends heavily, and a tiny earnings base is what inflates the ratio. Meanwhile, the P/S ratio of 98.6 times is undoubtedly steep. 

The EPS outlook does well to explain why investors are willing to pay up. Analysts expect earnings to skyrocket by 1,180% in fiscal 2027. However, earnings shrinking right now makes that growth look more impressive than it is.

The balance sheet, at least, is genuinely strong. SpaceX holds around $100 billion in cash. That cushion matters because the orbital data-center push will require heavy spending for years. For now, investors are paying a steep price today, primarily on faith in the company’s future.

Strong Growth Accompanied by Aggressive AI Investments

SpaceX reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Aug. 4. Revenue climbed to $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year (YOY). Adjusted EBITDA was $3.5 billion, up 191% YOY. Capital expenditures of about $18.4 billion show that the company is investing aggressively to expand its AI infrastructure, Starlink network, and space operations. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities stood at $100 billion at quarter-end. CFO Bret Johnsen said on the earnings call that revenue growth “accelerated across every segment” and the company significantly strengthened the balance sheet through its initial public offering (IPO) and inaugural investment-grade bond offering. 

Looking forward, management expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate (ARR) by the end of 2026. The company’s internal projection for $1 trillion in revenue has moved up to 2030 from 2031. CEO Elon Musk said that SpaceX expects to end the year with over 2 gigawatts of compute. On the investment side, the company plans to aggressively invest in Starship development and production scale, next-generation Starlink broadband, and AI compute infrastructure.

On the earnings call, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu asked management to explain its goal of reaching $100 billion in ARR. Johnsen explained that the expected growth will come from all three businesses, with cloud services contributing the most. In addition, Musk said the company is highly confident about reaching $100 billion in ARR by December, describing it as a target SpaceX could achieve even without major additional efforts.  

What Do Analysts Expect for SPCX Stock?

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma recently reiterated a “Buy” rating on SPCX stock. His bullish stance is due to the company’s strong technological advantages and emerging AI opportunities. Earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned also reiterated a “Buy” rating with a price target of $248. 

Based on 35 Wall Street analysts with coverage, SpaceX has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. The mean price target of $217.85 reflects 54% potential upside from current levels. Meanwhile, the high price target of $800 is quite impressive, implying enormous potential upside of 465% from here. Overall, Wall Street appears to be optimistic about SPCX stock’s growth prospects.