Stocks Mixed Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.17% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.18%.  E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.10%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.20%.

Stock indices are mixed today, with the S&P 500 climbing to a 1-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a 2-week high.  Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh’s address to the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this morning.  Markets are looking at Warsh’s comments for clarity on the economic outlook and the Fed’s strategy for bringing inflation back to target.  Marvell Technology is down more than -7%, leading chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks lower and weighing on the Nasdaq 100, after the company forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin below consensus. 

Today’s US economic is negative for stocks after the Aug MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -10.5 to 47.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 57.9 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down more than -1% today on signs of larger oil supplies leaving the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.  Crude prices also weakened today on reports that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, which could increase the chances of a price war as the remaining members of the cartel compete with one another for customers and market share.

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 486 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. 

The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.82%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.11%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.41%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are down by -2 ticks today.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.4 bp to 4.680%.  Position squaring and long liquidation are pressuring T-note prices ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s address at the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming later today.  

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 15-year high of 3.286% and is up +1.2 bp to 3.265%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.3 bp to 5.043%.

The Eurozone Aug economic confidence index rose +1.3 to a 7-month high of 98.4, stronger than expectations of 97.5.

Markets are discounting a 97% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are under pressure today, led by a -7% decline in Marvell Technology (MRVL) after it forecast Q3 adjusted gross margin of 57.5% to 58.5%, the midpoint below the consensus of 58.4%.  The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closed up more than +1%.  Also, ARM Holdings (ARM) is down more than -2%, and Lam Research (LRCX), Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Analog Devices (ADI), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%.

Cybersecurity stocks are under pressure today, led by a -4% fall in SentinelOne (S) after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of 30 cents to 32 cents, below the consensus of 35 cents.  Also, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is down more than -4%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down more than -3%.  In addition, Okta (OKTA), Fortinet (FTNT), Zscaler (ZS), and Cloudflare (NET) are down more than -1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are retreating today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%.  Iren Limited (IREN) is down more than -7%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -4%.  Also, Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase Global (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -1%. 

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after people with knowledge of the matter said a consortium of Advent and Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of the company. 

Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -5% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.04 to $3.09, weaker than the consensus of $3.15.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is down more than -4% after reporting a Q2 gross margin of 39.1%, below the consensus of 39.2%. 

Elastic NV (ESTC) is up more than +23% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, stronger than the consensus of 59 cents, and raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 from a previous forecast of $3.21 to $3.29, above the consensus of $3.24. 

Gap (GAP) is up more than +14% after raising its 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.35 to $2.45 from a previous forecast of $2.30 to $2.40. 

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is up more than +9% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.17 billion, better than the consensus of $1.11 billion, and forecasting Q1 revenue of $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.17 billion. 

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is up more than +2% after a Netflix preview of the company’s new Grand Theft Auto VI video game drew positive reviews.   

Earnings Reports (8/28/2026)

Domo Inc (DOMO), Hub Group Inc (HUBG), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), SR Bancorp Inc (SRBK).