AutoZone Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

Memphis, Tennessee-based AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. Valued at $47.9 billion by market cap, the company offers an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. 

Shares of this auto parts retailer have underperformed the broader market over the past year. AZO has declined 30.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 19.3%. In 2026, AZO stock is down 13.5%, compared to the SPX’s 12.9% rise on a YTD basis.

Narrowing the focus, AZO’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). The exchange-traded fund has gained marginally over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 1.5% gains on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s double-digit losses over the same time frame.

AZO has underperformed over the past year primarily due to a shift in consumer spending habits, gross margin pressure, and a broad valuation reset. Weak foot traffic in its core DIY retail segment, compounded by inflation-weary consumers cutting back on non-essential vehicle maintenance and unseasonal weather impacting key summer category sales, has dragged on volume growth. Additionally, elevated operating costs from expanding its supply chain and commercial MegaHub footprint led to net income drops and earnings misses. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in August, analysts expect AZO’s EPS to grow 3.8% to $150.39 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions. 

Among the 27 analysts covering AZO stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 21 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and five “Holds.”

The configuration has been relatively stable over the past three months. 

On Aug. 17, UBS analyst maintained a “Buy” rating on AZO and set a price target of $4,555, implying a potential upside of 55.3% from current levels.

The mean price target of $3,944.29 represents a 34.5% premium to AZO’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $4,800 suggests a notable upside potential of 63.7%.