S&P Futures Tread Water Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech; Marvell Sinks After Earnings

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are down -0.05% this morning as investors hold their breath ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech.

Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed, falling -0.30%, as Marvell Technology (MRVL) sank over -8% in pre-market trading after the chip designer delivered only a modest Q2 beat and provided slightly higher-than-expected Q3 guidance, leaving investors disappointed. Other chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks retreated in pre-market trading, giving back some of the gains fueled by Nvidia’s blowout outlook.

The price of WTI crude edged lower on Friday even as diplomatic efforts toward a deal over the Strait of Hormuz faced fresh obstacles. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Venezuela was seriously considering plans to leave OPEC.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed over +8% after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q2 results, issued strong Q3 revenue guidance, and gave an FY28 revenue growth forecast that smashed Wall Street’s estimates. Also, Salesforce (CRM) jumped more than +22% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the enterprise software company reported better-than-expected Q2 results, boosted its annual guidance, and expanded its partnership with Anthropic. In addition, CrowdStrike (CRWD) surged over +20% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity firm reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Hormel Foods (HRL) slumped more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the food company posted weaker-than-expected FQ3 net sales and cut its full-year net sales guidance.

Economic data released on Thursday offered reassurance that the labor market and private inventory growth remain supportive of economic expansion. The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -4K to 203K, compared with the 208K expected. Also, U.S. July wholesale inventories rose +1.3% m/m, compared with expectations of +0.2% m/m.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Thursday that the central bank’s current rate stance is not restraining the U.S. economy while inflation remains above its 2% target. “For me, I think it might be accommodative on the short end. So we’ve got work to do,” Schmid said. Also, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that policymakers need to act now to curb inflation. At the same time, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there are still signs that the central bank’s current policy stance is restraining the U.S. economy and helping to slow inflation. “I continue to see rates as mildly restrictive,” Collins said. In addition, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that three-month inflation “doesn’t look terrible” right now.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 64.1% probability of no rate change and a 35.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the next central bank meeting in September.

Today, all eyes are on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s keynote remarks at the central bank’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors will be looking for clarity on Mr. Warsh’s economic outlook and strategy for bringing inflation back toward the central bank’s long-term target. Warsh rattled stock and bond markets by declining to clarify, at a post-policy-meeting press conference in July, how the Fed would approach policy decisions under his leadership. If he again declines later today to offer details on the indicators and near-term conditions he is considering when setting rate policy, the markets could react negatively.

“Details, details, details: This is what investors are looking for, not consultant-speak,” said Jack Janasiewicz at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

According to CNBC’s Fed Survey, 80% of the 31 respondents said the Fed chairman should offer greater insight into his economic views. At the same time, 45% expect Warsh to provide no guidance on the rate outlook amid his more restrained communication approach, while 32% anticipate he will be “somewhat hawkish.”

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists project that the final August figure will remain unrevised at 51.0.

Market participants will also closely watch the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the year ended in March.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.69%, up +0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.71% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s slump, while investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at Jackson Hole. Luxury stocks led the gains on Friday, with EssilorLuxottica (EL.FP) rising over +2% after announcing a share buyback program. Automobile, energy, and bank stocks also climbed. At the same time, media and retail stocks declined. The benchmark index is on track to eke out a weekly gain. Preliminary data released on Friday showed that annual inflation in France and Spain accelerated in August as high energy costs continued to push price growth above target, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank ahead of its September policy decision. Separately, the European Commission said that businesses and consumers across the Eurozone grew more optimistic about their prospects in August. In addition, final data showed that France’s economy stalled in the second quarter, below the preliminary estimate of +0.2% growth, with the country’s finance minister saying that the downward revision will weigh on third-quarter figures. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields climbed on Friday, with 10-year German Bund yields reaching a 15-year high, after data showed that Spanish and French inflation accelerated. In other corporate news, Ackermans & van Haaren (ACKB.BB) climbed over +7% after the conglomerate posted higher first-half net profit and lifted its full-year net profit growth guidance.

France’s CPI (preliminary), Spain’s CPI (preliminary), France’s GDP, Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, Eurozone’s Business and Consumer Survey, and Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.

The French August CPI rose +0.7% m/m and +2.4% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Spanish August CPI rose +0.7% m/m and +4.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +4.2% y/y.

The French GDP was unchanged q/q and rose +0.5% y/y in the second quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y.

The German August Unemployment Change stood at 4K, in line with expectations.

The German August Unemployment Rate was 6.4%, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s August Business and Consumer Survey stood at 98.4, stronger than expectations of 97.5.

Eurozone’s August Consumer Confidence came in at -15.5, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.11%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.41%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower today as investors weighed renewed U.S. sanctions threats over China’s ties with Iran. Sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday hinted at sanctioning Chinese banks over their business ties with Iran, just weeks before Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to travel to Washington for a bilateral summit. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that a major announcement imposing sanctions on a foreign financial institution would come by the end of the week. Semiconductor stocks retreated on Friday as investors took profits following a recent rally. Biotech stocks also slumped. Limiting losses, commodity and property stocks advanced. Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index posted solid gains for the week. Meanwhile, S&P on Friday affirmed China’s sovereign credit rating at “A+,” citing expectations that the country’s economy will likely expand by 4% or more over the next one to two years. S&P added that the rating outlook remained “stable.” In corporate news, Mixue Group slid over -7% in Hong Kong, extending yesterday’s losses after the fast-food chain posted a 15% drop in first-half net profit, weighed down by higher costs and expenses. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, though the advance was limited amid caution ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Software stocks led the gains on Friday, boosted by strong results from U.S. peer Salesforce. Chip-related stocks also advanced, with heavyweight Advantest rising nearly +2%. The benchmark index notched a weekly gain. Data released on Friday showed that Tokyo’s annual core inflation picked up in August for a third consecutive month, signaling broadening price pressures that strengthen the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month. The Tokyo data are widely viewed as a leading indicator of national price trends. “Today’s results are overall supportive for a rate hike in September. Unless something really big happens to shift the economic landscape, the BOJ is likely to raise rates next month,” said Yusuke Matsuo at Mizuho Securities. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields climbed on Friday, with the 5-year yield hitting a record high, as a weak 2-year bond auction weighed on sentiment and inflation concerns persisted. Elsewhere, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that Japan’s strategy to enhance long-term competitiveness and potential economic growth by encouraging investment and expanding domestic supply capacity will bolster the yen’s credibility. The Japanese currency was little changed on Friday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -17.05% to 23.25.

The Japanese August Tokyo Core CPI rose +1.8% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese July Unemployment Rate was 2.4%, stronger than expectations of no change at 2.5%.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Marvell Technology (MRVL) sank over -8% in pre-market trading after the chip designer delivered only a modest Q2 beat and provided slightly higher-than-expected Q3 guidance, leaving investors disappointed.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) tumbled more than -14% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that a consortium including payments company Stripe and private-equity firm Advent had abandoned its pursuit of the company.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surged over +13% in pre-market trading after the fintech reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and issued solid FY27 GMV guidance.

Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) jumped more than +13% in pre-market trading after the company terminated its planned acquisition of Element Solutions.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 28th

Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE), Newegg Commerce (NEGG).