What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock?

With a market cap of $47.3 billion, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is one of the world’s largest fast-casual restaurant chains, best known for its customizable burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and salads. It owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill locations, offering Mexican-inspired foods like burritos, tacos, and bowls made with responsibly sourced ingredients. The California-based company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and delivery platforms, with operations across the United States and several international markets.

CMG stock has dropped 12.2% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which has rallied nearly 18.7%. In addition, shares of the company are up marginally on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 12.1% increase.

Focusing more closely, the Mexican food chain company stock has also underperformed the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLY) marginal return over the past 52 weeks.

On July 29, Chipotle released a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report, sparking a sharp rally that sent its shares up 12.5% in the next trading session. Revenue climbed 9.3% year over year to $3.35 billion, while comparable restaurant sales rose 2.2%, driven by a 1% increase in transactions and a 1.2% gain in average check. Adjusted EPS held steady at $0.33 and topped Wall Street’s expectations, while the company opened 100 new restaurants during the quarter. 

Chipotle’s earnings outlook is expected to cool in 2026, with analysts forecasting adjusted EPS of $1.14, down 2.6% from the prior year. Still, the burrito chain has shown a knack for outperforming expectations and has beaten or matched Wall Street’s consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters. 

Among the 35 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 23 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and ten “Holds.”

The consensus is bullish than a month ago when the stock had an overall “Strong Buy” rating. 

On Aug. 5, TD Cowen reiterated its “Buy” rating and $44 price target on Chipotle, but cautioned that the Minnesota salmonella outbreak could put the company’s Q3 same-store sales outlook at risk. While health officials said they had no ongoing concerns with Chipotle, the firm saw too much uncertainty around the potential sales impact to adjust its estimates, preferring to wait for a clearer picture of the downside risk. 

The mean price target of $43.93 represents a 17.6% premium to CMG’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $52 suggests a 39.3% potential upside.