Do Wall Street Analysts Like Arthur J. Gallagher Stock?

Based in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a global insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting powerhouse. With a market cap of $68.8 billion, the company has grown into one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, serving businesses, institutions, and individuals across more than 130 countries through a combination of owned operations and international partnerships.

Arthur J. Gallagher has been taking a hit while the rest of the market has been cashing in. AJG stock has slipped 10.1% over the past year, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 18.7%. The shares have shown some signs of life in 2026, gaining 3.8% year to date, but they are still trailing the broader index’s much stronger 12.2% advance.

The picture doesn’t improve much against its insurance peers. The Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF (KBWP) has returned 11.7% over the past year and 6.2% in 2026, leaving AJG firmly in the back of the pack.

AJG shares fell 4.6% on July 30 after the company delivered its FY2026 Q2 earnings, as solid underlying performance was overshadowed by a slight revenue miss. Its adjusted earnings rose 23.5% from the year-ago quarter to $2.84 per share, edging past Wall Street’s expectations. The company’s core Brokerage and Risk Management businesses also delivered 6% organic growth, highlighting continued client retention and new business momentum. While revenue of $3.95 billion rose 24.2% year over year, it slightly missed market expectations. 

For the current year ending in December 2026, analysts expect AJG’s EPS to grow 24.1% year over year to $13.27 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It surpassed the consensus estimate in two of the last three quarters while missing on another occasion.

Among the 24 analysts covering AJG stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and six “Holds.”

The consensus is bullish than three months ago when the stock had an overall “Moderate Buy” rating.  

On Aug. 19, Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Arthur J. Gallagher to $290 from $270 and reiterated an “Overweight” rating. The firm noted that while intensifying competition is slowing growth across the property and casualty insurance industry, strong margins and broadly solid Q2 results suggest recent share-price moves may not fully reflect underlying fundamentals.

The mean price target of $204.35 indicates 9.6% premium to AJG’s current price levels. Its Street-high target of $388 suggests a 44.5% potential upside.