Where Are Lean Hog Prices Heading After the 2026 Grilling Season Ends?

I last wrote about the pork futures in a May 12, 2026, Barchart article as the 2026 grilling season was on the immediate horizon. I concluded the article with the following:

While live cattle traded to record highs in May 2026, and feeders in October 2025, the all-time high in lean hog futures was at the March 2014 high of $1.33425 per pound, which is the ultimate upside target. 

The nearby lean hog futures contract was trading at just over $1 per pound on May 11, and the price for October delivery is significantly lower in late August 2026. 

A bearish trend since March 2026, but a bullish bias since 2016

Lean hog futures peaked this year on March 11, 2026, at $1.10175 per pound. 

The daily continuous year-to-date chart shows that the lean hog futures reached just over $1.10 per pound in mid-March as the market moved toward peak demand during the 2026 grilling season, which began in late May. However, the pork futures lost upside momentum. They made lower highs and lower lows throughout April, May, and June, and in July and August, reflecting post-2026 grilling-season pricing, falling below 80 cents per pound on August 21. 

Meanwhile, the long-term chart continues to display a bullish bias. 

The twenty-year monthly continuous contract chart shows that lean hog futures have consistently made higher lows since reaching a low of 40.70 cents per pound in October 2016. During the 2020 pandemic, when all commodity prices reached multiyear lows, the lean hogs made a higher low of 41.50 cents per pound.  

Technicals favor higher prices

Lean hog futures tend to be seasonal, with annual highs in spring and early summer during the grilling season and lows often in the fall and winter, when pork demand is lower.

The pattern of higher lows during the offseason, including the risk-off period during the 2020 global pandemic, favors the upside barring unforeseen risk-off events that cause a decline in all commodity prices. 

Fundamentals point to prices below the 2014 record high

The world’s leading pork-producing countries in 2025 and 2026 were:

China, the European Union, and the United States are the top three pork-producing countries. The chart shows that, year on year, pork production in the U.S. was virtually unchanged, while European output was slightly lower. Production in Brazil, Russia, and Vietnam edged higher. Overall global pork production edged higher from 116.997 million metric tons in 2025 to 117.168 million metric tons in 2026. 

While China leads in production, it does not export pork. 

The chart shows that in 2025, Spain was the top pork-exporting country, followed closely by the United States. European countries were significant pork exporters. 

Japan led the world in pork imports in 2025. 

While Japan, Mexico, Italy, and South Korea were the top four pork-importing countries, China, the world’s leading producer, was the fifth-largest pork importer because its production was insufficient to meet demand. 

The U.S. was responsible for over 17% of annual 2025 pork exports. Trade tariffs and sanctions have put a premium on U.S. pork going to Japan, Mexico, Italy, and South Korea. 

A July 23, 2026, report from Rabobank highlighted weak demand, but rebalancing in the global pork market. The author stated that:

Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand and oversupply. Sentiment is subdued across major producing regions, as prices across regions generally stay lower than the previous years. The key reason is the excess supply, although the causes vary by region. In China, supply has expanded due to capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years. In Europe, pork prices stay low as Spain’s exports continue to be constrained by its ASF status, leaving more pork to be absorbed within the regional market. In addition, Europe’s pork production has risen, which also contributes to pressured prices. In North America, supply is modestly higher than last year, while demand remains weak. Across the regions, productivity improvement plays an important role in the supply growth, as producers have been focusing on cost and efficiency. Looking ahead, the ongoing decline in China’s sow herd is expected to lead to reduced supply, starting in mid/late Q3. However, any price recovery in China is likely to be modest given the still-weak demand. North America will also likely see some improvement in Q4 if not earlier than that.

Trade is expected to remain stable in 2H, although structural shifts are ongoing. Export patterns are shifting, as Europe’s market share has declined following disease issues and weaker demand from China, and Brazil has expanded share rapidly. Meanwhile, import patterns are also evolving, with Mexico and the Philippines significantly increasing imports, and China reducing volume. Trade remains vulnerable to disease developments, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy adjustments. While the USMCA remains fully in force, the US’ decision not to extend the agreement increases uncertainty on investment decisions across North America but has limited near-term trade implications. The Philippines officially lifted a nationwide ban on pork imports from Spain. China’s antidumping duties on EU pork imports, combined with the excessive supply in China, resulted in a decline of 29% in the first five months. All of these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2H 2026. 

The USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report told the pork market the following:

The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2026 reflects the information provided in the June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed lower pig crops in the first half of 2026 and indications of lower year-over-year farrowings in the second half of 2026. 

Pork production is lowered based on a smaller expected pig crop following the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The reduction in expected slaughter more than offsets heavier dressed weights.

Hog prices are lowered for the remainder of 2026 on recent price weakness for hogs and pork but are unchanged for 2027. 

While current fundamental data and seasonality suggest that lean hog futures will be under pressure over the coming weeks and months, the potential for disease outbreaks, growing global population, trade tariffs, and sanctions underpin prices, which could continue the bullish bias in the lean hog futures market over the coming months and into 2027. Moreover, stubbornly high interest rates and inflation are lifting production costs, another bullish factor for pork prices. 

Levels to watch in the lean hog futures market

The five-year monthly lean hog futures chart highlights the critical technical levels to watch over the coming weeks as the 2026 grilling season ends in early September. 

The chart shows the first technical support at the November 2025 seasonal low of 77.125 cents per pound. Below there, the next support levels are the July 2024 low of 68.10 cents and the January 2024 low of 64.575 cents per pound. 

Meanwhile, technical resistance is at the March 2026 high of $1.10175. Still, with the pork market heading into the off-season for demand, the support levels are far more significant than the resistance levels over the coming weeks and months. From a long-term perspective, holding above the November 2025 low of 77.125 cents per pound will keep the bullish bias in the lean hog futures market. 

A slightly bullish view. Futures are the only direct route for exposure

Trends are always a trader’s best friends. The bullish bias in the lean hog futures suggests that another higher low is on the horizon. Lean hogs for October delivery are trading between 81 and 82 cents per pound, around 4 cents above the first technical support level at the November 2025 low. A scale-down buying approach, with a stop below the technical support around 77 cents on the active month October futures contract, could be optimal for market participants expecting the pork market’s bullish bias to remain intact over the 2026/2027 offseason.

The forward curve highlights seasonality in lean hog futures, with lows for December 2026 delivery and highs for July 2027 delivery. 

As no ETF or ETN products track lean hog prices, the only route for participation in the lean hog market is the CME’s futures and futures options contracts. Each contract contains 40,000 pounds. At 81.15 cents per pound, the contract value is $32,460. The CME’s original margin requirement is $1,650 per contract, meaning market participants can control $33,460 worth of lean hog futures for a 5.08% down payment, creating significant leverage. If equity falls below $1,500 per contract, the CME requires maintenance margin payments. The margin levels can change as they reflect price volatility in lean hog futures.

Lean hog futures for October delivery could be at an attractive level if the technical support holds and the market’s bullish bias continues. The higher-low pattern is now a decade old, which could create an opportunity at the current price level.