Coinbase Stock Pops on a Bitcoin Short Squeeze. How to Play COIN Here.

Amid a crowded cluster of bearish leveraged cryptocurrency bets, a record $2.70 billion for that matter, a massive short liquidation event (the largest since 2021) led to a sharp rise in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) prices last week. After the rally, Bitcoin closed Friday’s trading session over $77,000, going above the prolonged slump it had been in since October 2025. Crypto trading platform Coinbase Global (COIN) also rallied sharply over the past five days on the Bitcoin surge, as the platform’s stock price closely follows the digital currency’s ebbs and flows. 

The rally was fueled by the Treasury's announcement that it plans to double its purchases of longer-dated government bonds, which briefly pushed yields lower and helped reignite demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin and safe-haven assets like gold. Last week, President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives on Wednesday in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.

However, BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky pointed out that despite such a rally in January 2023, momentum had faded soon after. So, it may be wise to watch how long the rally lasts for Bitcoin and Coinbase now.

About Coinbase Stock

Coinbase is a leading U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange and digital asset infrastructure provider, headquartered in San Francisco, California. The platform enables retail and institutional users to buy, sell, trade, and store cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and hundreds of other tokens, while also offering staking, custody, and developer tools. 

Although Coinbase has diversified its revenue streams, Bitcoin prices still influence trading volumes and user activity on the platform. Higher Bitcoin prices typically boost retail interest and transaction fees, while sharp declines can dampen engagement and pressure short-term revenues. The company has a market capitalization of $47.35 billion. 

Amid a prolonged “crypto winter,” macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tension, and regulatory uncertainty, the stock has declined 38.75% over the past 52 weeks. The stock is also down 17.13% year-to-date (YTD). However, as Bitcoin prices skyrocketed, Coinbase’s shares rose 28.16% over the past five days. It reached a 52-week low of $139.11 on July 31, but is up 35.6% from that level. 

On a forward-adjusted basis, Coinbase’s price-to-sales ratio of 8.84 times is highly stretched compared to the industry average of 3.15 times. 

Coinbase Posted Q2 Loss as Weak Crypto Trading Overshadows Revenue Diversification

For the second quarter, Coinbase’s revenue dropped by 19% year-over-year (YOY) to $1.22 billion, missing the $1.30 billion Wall Street analysts’ estimate. The revenue drop reflected softer crypto market conditions, which didn’t sit right with investors, leading to a 10.6% intraday drop in the stock on July 31. 

This was outlined by a 22% YOY drop in transaction revenues to $599.20 million. Subscription and services revenue declined 12% to $555.10 million, but it made up 48% of net revenue, reflecting continued platform diversification. 

As its losses on crypto assets held for operations reached $31.70 million and it incurred a $52.40 million restructuring expense (alongside a robust jump in technology and development expenses), its operating loss reached $113.50 million. Its net loss per share reached $1.36, missing the expected loss per share figure of $0.23 significantly. However, this was the company’s 14^th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA across market cycles. 

Wall Street analysts expect Coinbase’s losses to increase by 101.5% YOY to $0.06 per diluted share for the current year, followed by a considerable improvement to an EPS of $3.58 in the next year. For the third quarter, the company is expected to earn a loss per share of $0.03. 

What Do Analysts Think About Coinbase’s Stock?

Recently, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an “Overweight” rating on the stock but reduced the price target from $250 to $184 after its quarterly results missed expectations. Canaccord Genuity analysts kept a “Buy” rating on the stock and a $300 price target. 

Analysts at Needham maintained a “Buy” rating after its quarterly results, while reducing the price target from $220 to $177. Needham highlighted several positives for Coinbase, namely, steady subscription and services revenue, rising USDC market share, and faster growth in prediction markets. However, it noted that crypto spot trading remains weak. July trading volumes dropped to their lowest point of 2026 and the weakest monthly level since 2023, as June’s modest rebound failed to sustain momentum. 

Coinbase has become a popular name on Wall Street, with analysts awarding it a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the 34 analysts rating the stock, 19 analysts have given it a “Strong Buy” rating, one analyst rated it “Moderate Buy,” while nine analysts are taking the middle-of-the-road approach with a “Hold” rating, and five analysts rated it “Strong Sell.” The consensus price target of $191.30 represents a 1.6% upside from current levels. The Street-high price target of $330 reflects a 75.2% upside.