Massive Options in Tesla Shows Investors Placing Huge Bets on TSLA Stock

Editor’s Note: This article, along with its headline, was revised on Aug. 25, 2026, to correct the unusual options activity in Tesla from “calls” to “puts.” This corrected version has also been distributed to recipients of Barchart’s Unusual Options Activity newsletter. 

A Barchart report today shows some Tesla (TSLA) institutional investors have bought long-dated put options (over 1-year expiry). The in-the-money put purchases show these buyers placing large bets on TSLA over the coming year. It could be both bearish from put buyers, and bullish from put short sellers.

TSLA is up today at $350.22, well up from a recent low of $298.32 on July 29. However, it’s still below a recent peak of $425.30 set on July 1.

It could rise again, as analysts have much higher price targets. For example, Yahoo! Finance reports the average price target of 46 analysts is $390.09, or +10% higher.

Similarly, Barchart’s mean survey price target is $397.94, or 12% higher. Moreover, 28 analysts surveyed by AnaChart, including more recent analyst writeups, have an average price target of $414.44, +17% upside.

However, some large institutional investor(s) bought an unusually large amount of in-the-money puts that expire in over one year, expecting TSLA to drop.

Unusual TSLA Put Options Buying

This is seen in today’s Barchart Unusual Stock Options Activity Report. It shows that over 2,770 put options contracts have been bought at a $420 strike price that expire on Sept. 17, 2027, or 388 days from now.

That is over 22 times the prior number of put options that were outstanding at the strike price and expiry period. 

The premium paid was $103.40, so the investor(s) expects TSLA to drop to $316.60 ($420.00-$103.40) over the next year. That’s about $25 lower than today’s price, or 9.6% lower.

Buyers and Sellers of TSLA Puts

That could mean the investors in these puts are bearish. That assumes they bought TSLA puts and they expect it to drop 10% or more below today’s price over the next year.

Of course, some investors may be shorting these puts. They could be looking for a way to more cheaply buy TSLA. That would be a bullish investment signal.

So, for example, the short sellers of these in-the-money puts (i.e., the strike price is higher than today’s price) mean the investors gain income:

  $103.40/$420.00 = 24.6%

Moreover, short sellers of these puts have a lower breakeven buy-in. 

For example, assuming TSLA stays below $420 over the next year to Sept. 17, 2027, the put sellers’ account will be assigned to buy shares at $420. But, since the income is already in their account, the breakeven is

  $420 - $103.40 = $316.60

This could be very profitable for these short sellers, especially if TSLA stays flat.

For example, if TSLA closes at $400.00 on Sept. 17, 2027, their account will have an unrealized profit:

  $400/$316.60 -1 = +26.34%

That would be a better investment return than buying shares today at $351, i.e., a 14% return. So, shorting in-the-money puts is a way for investors to set a lower potential buy-in point, a very bullish investment move.

The bottom line is that today’s heavy put options trades in TSLA show investors may be either very bearish, expecting more than a 10% drop over the next year, or they are deftly setting a way to lower their potential buy-in of a large number of TSLA shares.