October live cattle (LEV26) futures on Friday fell $0.075 to $217.925 and hit an eight-month low. For the week, October cattle were down 95 cents. Meantime, September feeder cattle (GFU26) rose $0.10 to $329.025 and hit an eight-month low early on. On the week, September feeders were down $5.475.
Cattle futures traders were blindsided and spooked by Friday’s news that President Donald Trump said he would allow up to 300,000 MT of ground beef to be imported into the U.S. without impacting tariff quotas as part of a 90-day deal to aid a struggling economy. However, the psychological shock of the matter had worn off by the close on Friday, and sharp early losses were erased.
The USDA at midday Friday reported more active cash cattle trading taking place at lower money, with steers averaging $225.29 and heifers averaging $225.23. The agency reported cash cattle trading the week prior averaged $228.52.
Bullish USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report May Put in Price Bottom
The USDA on Friday afternoon, in its monthly cattle-on-feed report, showed cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on Aug. 1. The inventory was 2% above Aug. 1, 2025. However, bullish for cattle markets were placements in feedlots during July totaling 1.42 million head, 11% below 2025. Net placements were 1.37 million head. Placements were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 310,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 320,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 322,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 185,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head. Marketings figures were also bullish for futures. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.62 million head, 7% below 2025. Marketings were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996. Other disappearances totaled 55,000 head during July, 8% above 2025.
In other news, the detection of New World Screwworm in the Mexican state of Sonora last week threatens to complicate the planned Aug. 24 reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican cattle imports. Cattle futures were also pressured by lower cash cattle trade last week.
Livestock stress remains high in the southwestern Plains states this week, with daily temperatures expected to be over 100 degrees. Cattle weight gains have likely been poor in recent weeks.
Lean Hog Futures Trapped in a Price Downtrend
October lean hog (HEV26) futures on Friday rose $0.65 to $80.875 and hit a 12-month low early on. For the week, October hogs were down 88 1/2 cents. The lean hog futures market saw short coverings following recent losses.
Prices are still trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Also, the cash hog market is still trending down as seasonals suggest higher slaughter numbers in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index was down 24 cents to $93.72. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 46 cents at $93.26. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $93.35.
The weakening CME lean hog index and national direct prices suggest a seasonal top in futures as summer demand softens and pork supplies typically build into the fall.
On the positive side, historically elevated beef prices at the meat counter may mean better substitution demand for pork this fall.
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On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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