Where Are Cattle Prices Heading After the 2026 Grilling Season Ends?

In a June 23, 2026, Barchart article, I asked how screwworm will impact cattle prices at the start of the 2026 peak grilling season. I concluded the article with the following:

For over six years, buying cattle futures on price weakness has been optimal, and I expect that trend to continue.  

Nearby live cattle futures were trading at $2.4770, with the nearby feeder cattle futures at $3.70925 per pound on June 22. Cattle futures prices have declined in August 2026, with the grilling season ending in early September. While the short-term trends remain bearish, the long-term bullish trends remain firmly intact. 

Short-term lower, long-term higher in the fat cattle futures

As the 2026 peak grilling season, which began in late May, approached, live cattle futures reached their 2026 high of $2.56625 per pound on May 1. 

The daily continuous contract live cattle futures chart shows that the beef futures have made lower highs and lower lows, falling 17.1% from the May 1 high at the latest August 21 low of $2.12675 per pound. While the trend since May 1 remains lower, with live cattle futures below $2.15 per pound in August as the end of the grilling season approaches, the long-term trend since the 2020 low of 76.60 cents per pound remains intact. 

The monthly continuous contract chart shows the pattern of higher lows and higher highs, with live cattle futures reaching a record high of $2.56625 in early May 2026. 

The first technical support level is at the November 2025 low of $2.04325 per pound. 

The same trends in the feeder cattle futures

Live cattle futures also reached their 2026 high on May 1, reaching $3.7945 per pound. 

The daily continuous contract feeder cattle futures chart shows lower highs and lower lows, with prices falling 16.9% from the May 1 high to the latest August 21 low of $3.1540 per pound. While the trend since May 1 has been lower, with feeder cattle futures below $3.25 per pound in late August as the end of the grilling season approaches, the long-term trend since the 2020 low of $1.03625 per pound remains intact. 

The monthly continuous contract chart shows the pattern of higher lows and higher highs, with live cattle futures reaching a record high of $3.82800 in October 2025. 

The first technical support level is at the November 2025 low of $2.99525 per pound. 

Seasonality is bearish, but there are reasons to buy cattle on the current dip

The 2026 grilling season will end in early September after the Labor Day weekend holiday, which is the unofficial end of summer. As grills go back into storage for the fall and winter season, the demand for beef tends to decline, and prices often fall to seasonal lows. 

While live and feeder cattle futures have shown seasonal strength and weakness for decades, trends since the 2020 global pandemic have remained clearly bullish, with feeder cattle reaching its latest all-time high in October 2025 and live cattle futures peaking in May 2026. 

The odds of a correction will increase as the peak demand season ends, but if beef demand remains robust and supplies do not increase, expect the bullish trend to continue over the coming months and into 2027. The following factors favor higher beef prices:

• Inflation has increased the cost of raising cattle and producing beef products due to rising prices for fuel, equipment, and veterinary care, as well as high interest rates on operating financing.
• The total U.S. cattle inventory has declined, leaving fewer market-ready animals for processing.
• Drought conditions in ranching areas have destroyed grazing pastures and driven up feed and hay prices, forcing ranchers to sell off cattle rather than keep and raise them to full weight.
• Rebuilding herds can take years, as a heifer takes 16-24 months to produce a calf. Supplies cannot quickly adjust to higher prices.
• Consumer demand has remained strong despite rising prices.
• Trade issues, including tariffs and sanctions on foreign beef trimmings, which are often blended with domestic beef for ground products, have added further pressure on prices. 

The bottom line is that declining cattle supplies, rising production costs, and robust consumer demand support a continuation of the bullish trend in the live and feeder cattle futures markets. 

Leave room to add on seasonal weakness at support levels

While technical and fundamental factors support higher beef prices, seasonality over the coming weeks and months could continue the bearish trend that has prevailed since May 1. Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the volatile beef futures markets are no exception. Moreover, an easing of import restrictions on Mexican cattle could weigh on prices in the short term.

I expect the bullish trend in cattle to continue, with higher all-time highs on the horizon. However, a rally to new record-high prices could come from lower levels. Therefore, I favor a scale-down accumulation approach, buying on price weakness, and leaving plenty of room to add on further price declines over the coming weeks and months. 

Futures are the only route for direct participation in the beef market

No ETF or ETN products directly track live and feeder cattle futures. However, many diversified commodity ETF products have exposure to cattle prices. For example, the DBA agricultural ETF has around a 29% exposure to live and feeder cattle futures. The diversified DBC commodity ETF has around a 19.3% exposure to the two cattle futures contracts. Many other ETFs have exposure to beef futures, but the only direct route for exposure is the futures and futures options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

A live cattle futures contract contains 40,000 pounds of beef. At $2.14 per pound, the contract value is $85,600. The CME’s current original margin requirement is $3,520 with maintenance margin if equity falls below $3,200 per contract. Therefore, a market participant can control $85,600 in live cattle futures with a 4.11% down payment. 

A feeder cattle futures contract contains 50,000 pounds of beef. At $3.2500 per pound, the contract value is $162,500. The CME’s current original margin requirement is $6,270 with maintenance margin if equity falls below $5,700 per contract. Therefore, a market participant can control $162,500 in live cattle futures with a 3.86% down payment. 

The CME adjusts original and maintenance margin requirements based on price volatility. When cattle futures become more volatile, the exchange increases the margin levels. 

The live cattle forward curve shows that deferred prices are progressively lower. The backwardation reflects the market’s perception that supply shortages are a short-term issue. The price for delivery during the August 2027 peak demand season is nearly 7 cents below the price of nearby October live cattle futures. 

The feeder cattle forward curve shows that deferred prices are progressively lower. The backwardation reflects the market’s perception that supply shortages are a short-term issue. The price for delivery during the August 2027 peak demand season is over 24 cents per pound below the price of nearby September live cattle futures.

Keep an eye on the prices for deferred live and feeder cattle futures for delivery during the 2027 gilling season, which runs from late May through early September. 

Expect lots of volatility in the beef futures markets over the coming days and weeks. A seasonal selloff that takes prices significantly lower could be a buying opportunity for the 2027 peak season, but it leaves plenty of room to add to any long position, as prices can always fall to levels that defy even the best fundamental and technical analysis, making picking bottoms dangerous.