Tractor Supply Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, operates as a rural lifestyle retailer. Valued at $18.6 billion by market cap, the company provides farm maintenance, animal, general maintenance, lawn and garden, light truck equipment, work clothing, and other products.

Shares of the largest rural lifestyle retailer have notably underperformed the broader market over the past year. TSCO has declined 43.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.2%. In 2026, TSCO stock is down 29.1%, compared to the SPX’s 12.6% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, TSCO’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 7.7% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 7.6% returns on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s double-digit dip over the same time frame.

TSCO underperformed on weakness in discretionary and big-ticket categories, which CEO Hal Lawton blamed on higher fuel prices, drought in key regions, and an unusually soft May. That created a two-point comp drag despite resilient CUE categories like feed and staples. Looking ahead, guidance is cautious given rural spending pressure and pet/home improvement softness. Management is acting with 75 Petsense closures, a Freshpet rollout to 700+ stores, and the VIP Petcare acquisition to deepen its pet ecosystem. 

On Jul. 23, TSCO shares closed up by 3.3% after reporting its Q2 results. Its adjusted EPS of $0.81 fell short of Wall Street expectations of $0.83. The company’s revenue was $4.5 billion, missing Wall Street forecasts of $4.6 billion. TSCO expects full-year adjusted EPS in the range of $1.90 to $2.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect TSCO’s EPS to decline 6.3% to $1.93 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is disappointing. It missed the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while beating the forecast on another occasion.

Among the 29 analysts covering TSCO stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 13 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 14 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

This configuration is less bullish than two months ago, with 14 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Aug. 11, Telsey Advisory analyst Joe Feldman maintained a “Buy” rating on TSCO and set a price target of $38, implying a potential upside of 7.2% from current levels.

The mean price target of $35.93 represents a 1.4% premium to TSCO’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $58 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 63.7%.