Wheat Prices Have Risen- How High Can They Go?

I asked if wheat prices can continue to rally in a May 29, 2026, Barchart article, where I concluded with the following:

The weather, fertilizer supplies and prices, energy prices, Australian El Niño, and geopolitical events will determine wheat’s price path over the coming weeks and months. In late May 2026, wheat remains in a bullish trend.  

Nearby CBOT wheat futures were trading at $6.25 per bushel on May 28, 2026. The price has been volatile, but has moved higher since late June, briefly probing above $7 per bushel before correcting. 

CBOT wheat futures have been volatile and bullish in 2026

CBOT soft red winter wheat futures have been in a bullish trend in 2026. 

The daily continuous futures chart shows that wheat prices have made higher highs throughout 2026, reaching a high of $7.1125 per bushel before correcting. 

The monthly continuous futures chart shows that while the price reached the highest level since May 2024, the trend since the 2022 all-time high of $13.6350 remains bearish so long as wheat prices remain below the May 2024 high of $7.20 per bushel. A break above that level could trigger a wave of buying that takes CBOT wheat futures substantially higher. 

Russia and Ukraine are significant wheat producers

While China and India are the world’s leading wheat-producing countries, Russia and Ukraine are also significant producers. 

In 2022, Russia was the third-leading wheat-producing country, and Ukraine was eleventh. However, together, Russia and Ukraine produced more wheat than second-place India. 

In 2025, Russia was the fourth-leading wheat exporter, with Ukraine seventh. Together, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 14.4% of total wheat exports, second only to Canada at 16.9%. 

The Kerch Strait is a critical logistical chokepoint

On July 15, 2026, Jake Hanley from Teucrium, the company that administers agricultural ETFs, including the WEAT ETF, issued a report, “Wheat’s Risk Premium Returns Through the Kerch Strait.” The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated. 

The Kerch Strait separates the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea, with the Russian Federation on one side and Ukraine on the other. As hostilities have increased, on July 10, 2026, “Russia’s border guards stopped accepting applications for passage through the Kerch Strait, with no end date given, and traffic on the Don-Azov canal was suspended the same day. Russia closed its own export artery to protect it.” 

Roughly one quarter of Russian wheat moves through the Azov system and through the Kerch Strait and onto deep-sea vessels bound for consumers in many countries. Meanwhile, Russian missiles have hit Black Sea Ports in Odesa and Ukraine’s Danube terminals. 

Jake Hanely points out that “Russia’s Azov export machine runs hardest from August through November.” Continued logistical issues in the region could prevent 5-10 million tons of wheat from passing through the Kerch Strait, creating shortages and supply fears that push wheat prices substantially higher. 

2026 has turned out to be the year of logistical issues surrounding critical chokepoints. In the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb have disrupted flows of oil, oil products, fertilizer, and other commodities. In the Black Sea, the Kerch Strait could do the same for wheat and other agricultural products. 

The KCBT-CBOT spread reflects consumer price concerns

I watch the spread between CBOT soft red winter wheat and KCBT hard red winter wheat because it provides clues about U.S. consumers’ behavior. Many U.S. bread manufacturers price their requirements based on the KCBT hard red winter wheat futures. The long-term average spread is a 20-30 cents per bushel premium for KCBT wheat futures over CBOT wheat futures. When the premium moves higher, it signals that consumers’ concerns about rising wheat prices and supply issues are increasing their hedging activity. When the premium declines or falls to a discount for the KCBT wheat, it signals that consumers are purchasing their requirements on a hand-to-mouth basis, with little or no hedging activity. 

The year-to-date continuous contract KCBT wheat minus CBOT wheat futures chart ({KEU26}-{ZWU26}) shows that the spread moved from a 12.5 cents per bushel discount for the KCBT wheat on February 27, 2026, to the most recent high of 90.75 cents per bushel on August 7, 2026. The over a 78 cents per bushel premium for KCBT wheat signals that consumers are hedging their requirements, expecting higher wheat prices and supply issues. 

The spread’s continuous monthly chart shows that there could be plenty of upside potential for the KCBT premium, which rose to a high of nearly $2.50 per bushel in May 2023, before falling to a small discount in 2024 and 2025. 

The long-term quarterly chart highlights that a 20-30 cents premium for KCBT wheat over CBOT wheat futures is the pivot point. At the 78-80 cents level in August 2026, the spread signals supply concerns, increased consumer hedging, and the potential for significantly higher wheat prices in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the USDA raised its wheat price forecast by 20 cents per bushel in the August 12, 2026, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. The USDA cited a lower stocks-to-use ratio and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. 

WEAT is the CBOT Wheat ETF

 The Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) owns three actively traded CBOT wheat futures contracts, excluding the nearby contract. WEAT’s holdings reduce roll risks and tend to lead to underperformance during rallies as the nearby contract experiences the most speculative behavior. However, during corrections or downside price action, WEAT tends to outperform the nearby CBOT wheat futures contract. 

At $25.08 per share, WEAT is a liquid ETF with over $308.3 million in assets under management. WEAT trades an average of over 523,000 shares per day and charges a 0.62% management fee.  

The continuous CBOT wheat futures contract rallied 40.3% from the end of 2025 price of $5.07 to the July 24, 2026, high of $7.1125 per bushel. The most recent correction to a low of $6.2675 per bushel on August 6 took the futures 11.88% lower. 

Over the same period, the WEAT ETF rose 30.6% from $19.97 at the end of 2025 to $26.08 per share on July 22, 2026, as WEAT underperformed the continuous CBOT wheat futures contract on the upside. The 9.74% fall to $23.54 per share on August 6 slightly outperformed the CBOT wheat futures during the most recent correction.

The $7.20 level on the continuous CBOT wheat futures contract is a critical technical resistance level that could trigger a substantial rally. Keep an eye on the KCBT-CBOT spread as an expansion of the premium for KCBT wheat could signal a continuation of the bullish trend in 2026. Moreover, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, the potential for logistical issues in the Kerch Strait and Black Sea Ports could ignite the most significant rally since 2022, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.

Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Crude oil powers the world, and wheat, the primary ingredient in bread, feeds the world. Oil and wheat are highly political commodities that are in the crosshairs of wars in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia. If the conflict around the Black Sea escalates, wheat prices could move significantly higher, as $7.20 per bushel stands as a line in the sand for the agricultural commodity.