Do Wall Street Analysts Like Texas Pacific Land Stock?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), headquartered in Dallas, Texas, owns and manages tracts of land and resource, and water services and operations businesses in Texas. Valued at $24.7 billion by market cap, the company’s income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

Shares of this leading owner of oil and gas surface acreage and subsurface mineral interests have outperformed the broader market over the past year. TPL has gained 22.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.4%. In 2026, TPL stock is up 25%, surpassing the SPX’s 13.7% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, TPL’s underperformance is apparent compared to the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 47.8% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 46.5% returns on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s gains over the same time frame.

TPL has experienced mixed stock performance, marked by strong long-term fundamentals alongside periods of near-term revenue pressure and commodity market volatility. Operating as an asset-light royalty owner across 880,000+ acres in the Permian Basin, the company achieved record net income and robust free cash flow in its Q2 2026 results while maintaining high-margin operations through oil, gas, and water sourcing royalties. However, headwinds such as fluctuations in regional energy prices and broader market pullbacks periodically weighed on investor sentiment. 

On Aug. 5, TPL shares closed down by 3.5% after reporting its Q2 results. Its revenue stood at $246.1 million, up 3.9% quarter over quarter. The company’s EPS increased from the previous quarter to $2.23.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect TPL’s EPS to grow 27.4% to $8.88 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last three quarters.

Among the three analysts covering TPL stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on two “Strong Buy” ratings, and one “Hold.”

This configuration is less bearish than a month ago, with one analyst suggesting a “Strong Sell.”

On Jun. 3, Tim Rezvan from KeyBanc maintained a “Buy” rating on TPL, with a price target of $639, the Street-high price target, implying a potential upside of 78.2% from current levels.

The mean price target of $442.33 represents a 23.4% premium to TPL’s current price levels.