Silver’s (SIU26) journey this year has been anything but smooth. After being battered by bouts of war-driven volatility and sliding sharply from its January peak, the white metal has staged a comeback lately, gaining roughly 10% over the past month and 63% over the past 52 weeks.
But even after that impressive run, silver hit a small speed bump recently. Spot silver (SIY00) slipped 1.3% to below $64 after cooler-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation pushed Treasury yields lower and eased expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Still, one downbeat session hardly changes the bigger picture.
So, where does silver go from here? Citi thinks there’s room for upside. The bank has kept its near-term target at $75 an ounce and sees silver reaching $90 within six to 12 months. And while some industrial demand, particularly from solar, may soften, Citi believes investment demand could increasingly take the driver’s seat.
Let’s see what exactly makes the bank this bullish on silver.
From Euphoria to Panic and Back to Optimism—Silver's Price Performance
Silver wasted no time reminding investors that it rarely does anything quietly. After crossing the historic $50-an-ounce mark in October 2025 and breaking a 45-year-old record tied to the Hunt brothers’ 1980 peak, the metal took its rally to another level. By Jan. 29, 2026, silver had soared past $121 an ounce, marking a fresh all-time high.
But what looked like a one-way rally soon turned into a painful reversal. Silver was cut in half from that peak, falling below $55 on July 17 to mark its year-to-date (YTD) low.
That, however, was hardly the end of the story. Silver began clawing its way back, although the recovery has been anything but smooth. The metal has repeatedly swung with changes in the dollar, interest-rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, eventually climbing back above $64 recently.
Softer economic data and expectations around potential Fed rate cuts have helped ease some pressure on precious metals, while bouts of Middle East tensions have brought safe-haven demand back into the picture.
Why Citi Thinks Silver Could Still Have Plenty of Upside
Citi’s bullish case is less about silver’s industrial story and more about who will drive the next leg of the rally. The bank expects investment demand to take the lead as some industrial demand, particularly from solar, faces structural headwinds.
A big part of that outlook rests on the Strait of Hormuz. Citi expects the current tensions in the Middle East to eventually ease, potentially between September and December. If that happens, some of the macro pressure from higher oil prices, stronger real yields, and a firmer dollar could unwind. Plus, a less hawkish Federal Reserve could make precious metals more attractive to investors.
And silver could have an extra advantage here. Citi expects it to continue moving in the same direction as gold, but with a higher beta—meaning silver can potentially make a larger move when gold rises. That makes it, in Citi’s view, an attractive upside play if geopolitical tensions ease quickly.
There is also a strong India angle. Citi points to a roughly 7% domestic silver premium as evidence of firm local demand. The bank expects Indian demand to strengthen further in the fourth quarter as the festive and wedding season gets underway.
That does not mean Citi is ignoring silver’s industrial challenges. Solar demand faces a structural slowdown as manufacturers use less silver per panel and increasingly adopt back-contact (BC) cell technology. Citi expects BC technology to become increasingly important and potentially emerge as a leading solar technology by 2028. Now, solar panels consume around 151 million ounces of silver annually.
Even so, the broader supply-demand picture remains supportive. Citi expects the global silver market to remain in deficit through 2027, with demand from AI, 5G, and electric vehicles helping offset some of the weakness in solar. Battery EVs, for instance, can use up to 50 grams of silver per vehicle.
And this is not just a one-year problem. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, released in April 2026, projects a 46.3-million-ounce deficit this year, marking the sixth consecutive year in which global silver demand is expected to exceed supply. For perspective, the market ended 2025 with a 40.3-million-ounce shortfall. That persistent supply squeeze gives the bullish case another layer of support—even if demand shifts from one industry to another, silver still has a supply problem to contend with.
Putting it all together, Citi sees investment flows, improving macro conditions, strong Indian demand, and a persistent market deficit creating enough support for silver to reach its $90-per-ounce target over the next six to 12 months.
Final Thoughts
Silver has a way of surprising investors. We saw it in 2025 and again in early 2026, when prices climbed to levels that seemed far removed from what normal supply-and-demand fundamentals would suggest. And even with the silver market still running a deficit, the metal can fall sharply when momentum fades, and investors start selling.
That is the catch with Citi’s outlook. The upside may be there, but getting there probably won’t be a smooth ride. Silver is much more volatile than gold and has a long history of sharp rallies, sudden drops, and false breakouts.
For investors, the next move may hinge on the tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and market sentiment. A less hawkish Fed, a weaker dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions could give silver another push higher. But rising yields, a stronger dollar, or a sudden risk-off mood could quickly change the picture.
At the same time, silver offers an investment story that goes beyond being a precious metal. Its role in industrial production, clean energy, technology, and resource security gives it a different appeal. Investors looking for exposure can consider silver-focused ETFs such as iShares Silver Trust (SLV) or Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), while silver mining stocks offer another way to participate in the metal’s potential upside.
Citi sees plenty of room for silver to climb, but what investors should remember is that with silver, the opportunity can be big, and so can the swings along the way.
On the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.