Do Wall Street Analysts Like Marathon Petroleum Stock?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading U.S. downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. Valued at $103.8 billion by market cap, the company refines, supplies, markets, and transports petroleum products.

MPC has been on a tear, leaving the broader market firmly in its rearview mirror. Shares of the refining giant have outperformed the broader market over the past year. MPC has gained 119% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 30.4%. In 2026, MPC stock is up 112.6%, surpassing the SPX’s 13.9% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, MPC has been one of the industry’s standout performers, outpacing the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which has gained about 74.7% over the past year and 57.4% returns over the same time frame.

On Aug. 4, Marathon Petroleum delivered strong Q2 2026 results, and its shares rose 1.8%, as prolonged disruptions to crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz sent refining margins soaring. Net income attributable to MPC jumped 347.7% year over year to $17.73 per share, comfortably beating analyst estimates, while total revenue and other income climbed 53.5% from the year-ago quarter to $52.34 billion. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $8.46 billion from $3.29 billion, powered by a sharp improvement in refining profitability. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MPC’s EPS to grow 336.1% year over year to $46.66 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.

Among the 18 analysts covering MPC stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on eight “Strong Buy” ratings, three “Moderate Buys,” and seven “Holds.”

This configuration is bullish than a month ago, with seven analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Aug. 11, Mizuho raised its price target for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to $304 from $284 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm cited stronger-than-expected results across independent refiners, supported by robust crack spreads, tight refined-product inventories, and elevated global refinery downtime.

While MPC currently trades above its mean price target of $319.89, the Street-high price target of $376 suggests an upside potential of 5.8%.