Unusual Options Activity Points to a $1.08 Million Dividend Capture in This 1 Stock

All three major U.S. indexes closed higher on Thursday with the S&P 500 ending the day at a record 7798.99. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.8% thanks to strong gains from SanDisk (SNDK) and other chip stocks.

Heading into Friday trading, futures pre-market were up slightly as investors focus on two pieces of news.

First, the U.S. Retail Sales data comes out. They’re expected to increase by 0.1% in July, slightly slower than the 0.2% gain in June. U.S. Core Retail Sales, which excludes motor vehicles and parts, will also be released.

The second important data point out today is the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index. Economists expect the preliminary figure to be 54.4, down from 55.2 in July. While not as low as May’s 74-year record of 44.8, it’s still well below 71.7, the figure when President Trump took office in January 2025. 

In the options markets, volume was 61.26 million, about 2.6 million below the 90-day average. Calls outnumbered puts by a 60/40 margin, with single-leg trades accounting for 54% of the action, and institutions and professional traders making 60% of those trades. 

Yesterday’s unusual options activity was very tame. No options expiring in six days or more had Vol/OI (volume-to-open-interest) ratios over 100. Even if you include options expiring in less than six days, only the Him & Hers Health (HIMS) $29.50 call expiring today was over 100, at 103.30. 

That’s made my job finding an interesting stock or options strategy for today’s unusual options activity commentary much more difficult. Nonetheless, I’ll give it a go. 

Have an excellent weekend. 

TPG’s Unusual Options Activity Stands Out

TPG (TPG), one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, had three unusually active call options yesterday. They’re shown below.  

The three calls all expire a week from today and have similar Vol/OI ratios between 5.48 and 6.06. All three are deep ITM (in-the-money). For me, what stands out is the similar volume for the $42.50 and $45 calls. When you see that, it’s important to check out their options flow. It usually points to some sort of options strategy playing out by a trader or institutional investor.

All get back to the options shortly. But first, I want to consider what’s happening with TPG as a business and stock. 

It’s Not Been a Good Year for Alternative Asset Managers

TPG stock is down 14.44% in 2026. Peers KKR & Co. (KKR) and Blackstone (BX) are down 9.55% and 3.13%, respectively, which is well below the 13.93% gain year-to-date for the S&P 500. 

Several reasons exist for this underperformance, the most obvious being that TPG’s valuation entering 2026 was quite high. 

For example, its P/S ratio at the end of December, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, was 2.43x, the highest multiple since going public in January 2022. It hit a 52-week high of $70.38 on Jan. 6, only $2.60 shy of its Nov. 25, 2024, all-time high of $72.98.    

A second multiple to consider is EV/FAUM (enterprise value as a percentage of fee-paying assets under management). It finished 2025 with a FAUM of $170.1 billion. Based on its $25.06 billion EV at the end of 2025, the EV/FAUM was 14.73%. 

At the end of 2022, it was 6.3% based on an enterprise value of $4.91 billion and a FAUM of $77.95 billion, less than half, an indication that its valuation had inflated significantly. Based on Q2 2026 FAUM of $180.97 billion and a current EV of $23.36 billion, the percentage is slightly more palatable at 12.9%, but still historically high.  

Another issue affecting TPG stock in the first four months of 2026 was investor concern about private equity’s exposure to software companies. In the company’s Q4 2025 conference call, CEO Jon Winkelried said that TPG’s software investments represented just 11% of its AUM overall, and only 2% of its private credit AUM, so it’s a case of TPG getting caught up in the market’s negative reaction. That’s something it can’t control. 

TPG reported outstanding Q2 2026 results on Aug. 4. On the top line, its fee-related revenues were $628.19 million, 11% higher than Zack’s consensus estimate, and 27% higher than a year ago. On the bottom line, it earned 69 cents a share, 10 cents above consensus. 

The good news from the first half of the year has started to gain traction with investors. Since hitting a 52-week low of $36.95 on April 2, its shares have run up 44%. While the relative strength is over 7o, suggesting a correction could be on the horizon, long-term investors shouldn’t be scared away by this. It’s a well-run investor. 

Dividends Are the Focus of TPG’s Unusually Active Call Options

As I said earlier, when you see similar volumes for two different options -- in this case TPG’s Aug. 21 $42.50 and $45 calls -- you should look at the options flow to see if a trader or institutional investor is up to something. Yesterday’s options flow suggests there certainly was. 

There were 20 trades of 2,640 contracts for the $45 call between 2:10 p.m. ET and 2:13 p.m. ET. At the same time, there were 19 trades of 2,880 contracts for the $42.50 call, along with one trade of 2,640 contracts for the $42.50 call. That’s 52,800 contracts for the $45 call and 57,360 contracts for the $42.50 call. These trades accounted for 99.8% of the overall volume for the $42.50 and $45 calls.  

So this wasn't retail trading, but a trader or institutional investor looking to capture the $0.59 quarterly dividend. My bet is on the latter. Here’s why. 

Today is TPG’s record date for its latest dividend payment, payable on Aug. 28. With only a week until expiration for both calls, their extrinsic (time) value was virtually zero because they were deep ITM. 

The open interest of the $42.50 and $45 calls at yesterday’s close was 18,862. As I write this, open interest for the $42.50 and $45 calls is 607, a 96.8% collapse. Therefore, the trader or institutional investor likely exercised 18,255 contracts, capturing $1.08 million [18,255 contracts * 100 * $0.59 a share] in dividends on the 1.83 million shares exercised. 

For further confirmation that this is what happened, TPG’s open interest at Wednesday’s close was 76,705. This suggests the trader or institutional investor opened the $42.50 and $45 calls well before yesterday’s trading, because open interest barely changed. Today, not coincidentally, the open interest, as I write this early afternoon, is 57,735, 19262 less than at yesterday’s close.