S&P Futures Tick Higher With Focus on U.S. Retail Sales Data

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are up +0.10% this morning, putting the benchmark index on track to end the week at a new record high.

The price of WTI crude edged higher on Friday after a tanker was attacked while trying to leave the Persian Gulf, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran. Mr. Bessent said in an interview with Newsmax on Thursday that the U.S. would soon announce new economic measures against Iran. “Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,” Bessent said. He added that the move would form part of a “one-two punch,” alongside the ongoing blockade of Iran’s ports. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. could maintain its blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely by rotating ships in and out.

Market participants are now awaiting U.S. retail sales data, which will provide fresh insight into consumer spending.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the S&P 500 posting a new record high. Workday (WDAY) jumped over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Reuters reported that private equity firm Silver Lake was in talks to acquire the company. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) surged more than +13% after the company said at its investor day that it expects revenue to increase at a mid-to-high-teens annual rate between fiscal 2028 and 2030. In addition, Netflix (NFLX) climbed over +5% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a stake in the company. On the bearish side, Cisco Systems (CSCO) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the networking company projected $7.5 billion in AI data center-related sales for fiscal 2027, disappointing investors.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand was unchanged m/m and rose +4.7% y/y in July, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +4.9% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y in July, compared with expectations of +0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +9K to 209K, compared with the 202K expected.

“The [PPI] report showed that inflation, while still way above the Fed’s 2% target, is showing signs of stabilization following the oil-driven surge since the Iran war began earlier this year. This is good news for consumers and the Federal Reserve, which is walking an extremely tight line between trying to tame inflation while monitoring a softening labor market,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on Thursday made the case for keeping rates steady amid signs that inflation is easing, while also acknowledging the risk that some price pressures could become entrenched, eventually forcing officials to raise rates. Separately, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cast doubt on whether recent signs of slowing inflation will continue and reiterated her call for an interest-rate hike. “I love to see that those numbers are coming in lower—that’s a good thing—but I don’t have confidence that we’re going to continue to see that, or that we’re going to see them low enough that it’s going to bring us back down to that 2% number,” Hammack said.

Meanwhile, traders are currently pricing in a 69.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its meeting next month, compared with 45% a week ago. Bets that the Fed may not raise rates at all this year are also creeping higher.

In tariff news, President Trump signed a proclamation on Thursday imposing tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and their components. A 100% tariff will be imposed on larger drones with militarily sensitive capabilities, along with certain critical components. Smaller drones and components that do not carry the same national security implications will face a 25% tariff. Trading partners including the European Union and Japan will be subject to a 15% tariff, while the U.K. will be subject to a 10% duty. Most of the levies will take effect 21 days after signing, while tariffs on components not deemed particularly sensitive will come into force after 180 days.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that retail sales will show a +0.1% m/m increase in July after a +0.2% m/m gain in June, extending the period of consumer resilience.

U.S. Core Retail Sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, will also be closely watched today. Economists expect the July figure to rise +0.2% m/m. That compares with a -0.2% m/m drop a month earlier.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists forecast that the preliminary August figure will come in at 54.4, compared with 55.2 in July.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.66%, up +0.28%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.32% this morning, hovering near a record high. Software stocks were among the biggest gainers on Friday, tracking gains in their U.S. peers after Reuters reported that Silver Lake was in talks to acquire Workday. The report revived investor interest in traditional software companies that had been under heavy pressure amid fears that AI could disrupt their business models. Defense stocks also climbed. At the same time, mining stocks underperformed. The benchmark index is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Eurostat said in an update on Friday that the Eurozone’s gross domestic product growth for the second quarter stood at 0.4%, in line with a preliminary estimate. Separately, final data confirmed that France’s annual inflation rate picked up to 2.1% in July. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone returned to an adjusted trade surplus in June as energy imports declined. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields climbed on Friday, tracking a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as higher oil prices fueled concerns about the risk of persistent inflation. In corporate news, GB Group Plc (GBG.LN) cratered over -26% after the company cut its 2027 revenue growth guidance.

France’s CPI, Eurozone’s GDP (second estimate), Eurozone’s Employment Change (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Trade Balance data were released today.

The French July CPI rose +0.6% m/m and +2.1% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s GDP rose +0.4% q/q and +1.0% y/y in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s Employment Change rose +0.1% q/q and +0.5% y/y in the second quarter, compared with expectations of +0.1% q/q and +0.6% y/y.

Eurozone’s June Trade Balance came in at 8.6 billion euros, stronger than expectations of -2.2 billion euros.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.01%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.59%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier losses and closed just above the flatline today, supported by gains in communication and rare earth stocks. Insurance, real estate, and healthcare stocks were the biggest drag on the benchmark index on Friday. Sentiment weakened after the Trump administration announced tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and their components. InTouch Capital Markets’ analyst team said, “China seems the main target of these tariffs.” The move added to a series of tit-for-tat measures between the U.S. and China just weeks before Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to meet with President Trump in the U.S. The benchmark index notched a modest weekly loss. Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed that China’s total new yuan loans contracted by 340 billion yuan in July, marking the second decline this year after April as the economy continued to struggle with weak credit demand. Elsewhere, China’s 10-year bond yield fell to its lowest level since July last year after the People’s Bank of China injected liquidity into the market through overnight reverse repos on Friday, marking its first such operation in the middle of the month. Separately, the PBOC said it conducted no seven-day reverse repos for a fourth straight day, in response to demand from primary dealers. In corporate news, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. rose over +4% in Hong Kong after the nation’s leading foundry reported upbeat Q2 results and issued a stronger-than-expected Q3 gross margin forecast.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Back-to-back benign U.S. inflation prints reinforced expectations that the Fed would refrain from raising interest rates at next month’s meeting and bolstered appetite for risk assets. “Factors such as lower crude oil prices and waning expectations for an early interest rate hike in the U.S. due to slowing inflation are positive for the Japanese market as well,” said Wataru Akiyama at Nomura Securities. Technology stocks outperformed on Friday. Videogame stocks also climbed, led by a more than +6% gain in Nintendo as investors welcomed further evidence of strong videogame software sales and an improving outlook for the profitability of its consoles. The benchmark index posted strong gains for the holiday-shortened week. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds fell on Friday, pushing shorter-term yields to multi-decade highs as expectations strengthened for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike next month. Reuters reported on Friday that the BOJ is poised to raise interest rates as early as September and is considering a faster pace of tightening thereafter than its current pace of roughly two hikes a year. Elsewhere, foreign investors sold a net 368.5 billion yen ($2.31 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week through August 8th, marking a second straight week of net selling, according to Ministry of Finance data. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -2.18% to 30.96.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Applied Materials (AMAT) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor equipment maker issued above-consensus FQ4 guidance that nevertheless received a lukewarm response from investors.

Sandisk (SNDK) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan resumed coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and a price target of $2,250.

Reddit (RDDT) surged over +12% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would join the S&P 500 Index on August 18th.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - August 14th

Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE), Alumis (ALMS), Kodiak Sciences (KOD), Sinda (SIND), Americas Gold and Silver (USAS), AnaptysBio (ANAB), Inhibrx Biosciences (INBX), Suncrete (RMIX), Boost Run (BRUN), Sigma Lithium (SGML), Versamet Royalties (VMET), Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK), Osisko Gold Group (OGG), Teamshares (TMS), HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), ASP Isotopes (ASPI), Assembly Biosciences (ASMB), XMax Inc. (XMAX), Roma Green Finance (ROMA), New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI), Boston Omaha (BOC), Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV), Digi Power X (DGXX), Maui Land & Pineapple Company (MLP), Cadiz (CDZI), American Resources (AREC), Duos Technologies Group (DUOT), SilverBox Corp IV (SBXD), Sidus Space (SIDU), BRBI BR Partners (BRBI), Dynamix (DYNC), Galectin Therapeutics (GALT), Z Squared (ZSQR), NervGen Pharma (NGEN), Robot Consulting (LAWR), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK), TuHURA Biosciences (HURA), Streamex (STEX), XCF Global (SAFX), NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP), Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN), AIB Data Centers (AIB), Brazil Potash (GRO), San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT), Seritage Growth Properties (SRG), Polaryx Therapeutics (PLYX), Rani Therapeutics Holdings (RANI), CO2 Energy Transition (NOEM).