Will Silver Hold Above Its Critical Support Level?

I asked if silver’s price action will be a bucking bronco in a July 3, 2026, Barchart article where I concluded with the following:

Silver is a trading market, not an investing market, in early Q3 2026. Any new risk positions should have a clear risk-reward profile with profit horizons and commensurate stop levels. I expect silver’s price to remain a bucking bronco over the coming weeks and months. 

Nearby COMEX silver futures prices were just above $62.75 per ounce on July 6, 2026. Silver fell to a lower 2026 low before recovering to around $66 on August 12. 

 Silver continued to make lower lows

COMEX silver futures have been in a bearish trend since reaching their all-time high of $121.785 per ounce on January 29, 2026. 

The daily continuous COMEX silver futures chart shows that silver continued to make lower highs and lower lows, reaching its latest low of $55.00 per ounce on July 17. Silver recovered to $66 per ounce on August 12. 

Silver approached the critical technical support at the 1980 high

For 45 years, COMEX silver futures remained below its 1980 high of $50.36 per ounce. The futures finally eclipsed the long-term technical resistance in October 2025, and more than doubled in price by January 2026. The long-term technical resistance at $50.36 has become critical technical support as silver prices plunged after the early 2026 high. 

The quarterly continuous COMEX silver futures chart shows that while silver prices more than halved and fell by 54.8% to the July 2026 $55 per ounce low, the critical technical support for the bullish trend since the 2020 low of $11.64 remains at the 1980 high of $50.36. Therefore, silver is in a bearish trend since January 2026, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. 

The case for buying silver

The factors supporting higher silver prices include:

• The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, released in April 2026, reported that 2026 is the sixth consecutive year of a deficit, where silver demand is higher than supply. The 2025 deficit was 40.3 million ounces, and silver above-ground stocks have declined by 762.1 million ounces since 2021.
• Silver demand is rising due to its electrical conductivity, making it a critical metal for artificial intelligence hardware, data center construction, and EV electronics. EVs require up to 50 grams of silver per vehicle. Solar panels consume around 151 million ounces of silver annually.
• Elevated inflation and geopolitical turbulence have increased investor demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
• Silver’s breakout above the 1980 high caused a tidal wave of speculative buying. If silver can find a bottom above the $50.36 long-term technical support, investment and speculative demand will likely increase.
• Silver is a highly speculative metal. As we witnessed in 2025 and early 2026, prices can rise to levels that defy logical, reasonable, and rational supply-and-demand fundamentals. The price action since the January high shows that while the silver market remains in a deficit, it can also plunge on long liquidation when it runs out of upward price momentum. Silver is a far more volatile metal than gold, and it has a long history of wide price swings and false breakouts on the upside and downside. 

The bottom line is that silver remains bullish as long as the price stays above $50.36 per ounce, but its volatility suggests a false breakdown could occur. 

The risks of a long position are real

The following factors could drive silver prices lower over the coming weeks and months:

• Continued long liquidation after the rise to over $120 per ounce could continue as disappointed investors and speculators liquidate risk positions.
• Risk-off conditions in markets across all asset classes could drive silver prices substantially lower. The economic and geopolitical landscapes remain highly turbulent in August 2026, with ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• The longer silver’s price sits below $60, the greater the chances of another leg down; the trend remains bearish in August 2026.

Silver faces bullish and bearish factors that are pulling the price in opposite directions. While fundamentals remain bullish, sentiment is the primary factor determining the path of least resistance for the volatile precious metal. 

SLV is the unleveraged silver ETF

Silver prices are far more reasonable at around $66 per ounce in August 2026. The move to over $120 was clearly overdone, but the implosive price action from late January through August may also have been overdone.

The most direct route for an investment or speculative risk position in silver is the physical market for bars and coins. However, buying physical silver involves storage and insurance for the bulky metal. Each 1,000-ounce silver bar, the institutional trading size, weighs about 71 pounds. Moreover, buying physical silver can involve premiums to the spot price, while selling can involve discounts. 

The CME’s silver futures market offers futures and futures options contracts, but the futures contracts require specialized accounts and margin, creating leverage that increases risk. 

The most liquid silver ETF that owns physical silver bullion is the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which began trading in April 2006. At $59.61 per share, SLV had over $31.27 billion in assets under management. SLV is a highly liquid ETF that trades an average of more than 14.736 million shares per day. The 0.50% management fee covers storage and insurance costs, and SLV is available to market participants in standard equity accounts. 

One of SLV’s drawbacks is that it trades only during U.S. stock market hours, whereas silver futures trade around the clock. Therefore, the ETF can miss highs or lows that occur outside U.S. stock market hours. 

Time will tell if silver can hold its critical technical support at $50.36 per share. Given its volatile history and current bearish trend, a false break and spike bottom could be on the horizon. Silver prices are likely to follow gold, which has also been in a bearish trend since its all-time high in late January 2026. Interest rates, the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies’ strength or weakness, and sentiment will determine whether silver is close to a bottom and whether its long-term bullish trend will remain intact over the coming days, weeks, and months.