SpaceX Rockets 10% on Grok 4.6 Release. What SPCX Stock Needs to Make a Real Comeback.

Whisper it quietly, but SpaceX's (SPCX) days in the doldrums may finally be coming to an end. After a dream debut and a nightmare follow-up, the stock is up 2% over the past month. Yet, its most significant trigger in recent times came yesterday, when SPCX shares ended almost 10% higher following the release of Grok 4.6. Today, it has given up some of those gains, but the last five days of trading still show a 23% increase for SPCX stock.

More geared towards video and image-related tasks, the company said in a post on its website that “Grok 4.6 underwent a longer supplemental training run than Grok 4.5, with curated model-generated data for reasoning and advanced technical concepts, high-quality engineering data, and an improved optimizer and training recipe. This produced a stronger foundation for the SFT and RL stages that followed.”

Not stopping there, CEO Elon Musk teased about Grok 4.7 and said that he would be “shocked” if competitor frontier models outperformed it.

How Does Grok 4.6 Stack Up Against Others?

Elaborating about Grok 4.6, SpaceXAI says it used a longer additional training run, better engineering data, a revised training process, and more reinforcement learning focused on reasoning, software development, technical work, and knowledge tasks. That makes Grok 4.6 more of a post-training upgrade than a new generation built from the ground up. The company says it is better at maintaining coherence across long tasks, checking its own work, and correcting mistakes before continuing. In practical terms, the improvement is aimed at reducing the tendency of AI agents to lose track of a project after several steps.

Initial performance metrics have been encouraging so far. On the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, which combines nine separate evaluations, Grok 4.6 scored 60.9%, compared with 55.8% for Grok 4.5. That places a little above GPT 5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 at its highest reasoning setting and only slightly behind Claude Fable 5 at 62.1%. Claude Opus 5 was reported at approximately 63% in the latest public comparison.

Surprisingly, though, the model has been marketed as being focused on visual work; it is at coding where its performance has been particularly encouraging. Grok 4.6 scored 69.9% on CursorBench 3.2, ahead of GPT 5.6 Sol at 67.2% and close to Fable 5 at 70.5%. On FrontierCode 1.1, it reached 61.3%, compared with 60.6% for GPT 5.6 Sol, although Fable 5 remained ahead at about 64 percent. Additionally, its API pricing of $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens also gives it a potentially attractive cost position against more expensive frontier systems.

However, the caveat should be acknowledged that benchmark results can change significantly depending on the reasoning setting, test design, and amount of computing time allowed. Therefore, the more reasonable interpretation is that Grok 4.6 has closed much of the distance with the strongest competitors rather than decisively surpassing them.

Q1 Was OK: Nothing More, Nothing Less

SpaceX has delivered significant revenue growth in recent years, advancing from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $18.7 billion in 2025. The company generated profits of $791 million in 2024 before shifting to losses of $4.9 billion the next year.

Cash flow from operations improved during this period, climbing to $6.8 billion in 2025 from $4.5 billion in 2023. The firm ended 2025 with a solid cash position of $24.7 billion and very limited short-term debt, which helps reduce liquidity concerns.

In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose more than 15% year-over-year (YoY) to $4.7 billion. Net losses widened substantially to $4.3 billion from $528 million in the year-earlier quarter. Operating cash flow increased to $1.05 billion from $727 million, and the company finished the period with $15.9 billion in cash.

Capital spending has risen sharply over the past three years, growing from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $20.7 billion in 2025. AI-related investments have expanded particularly rapidly, starting at $463 million in 2023 as the smallest of the space, connectivity, and AI categories before surging to $12.7 billion in 2025 and becoming the largest. This shift illustrates how the company, which initially concentrated on space missions and connectivity offerings, is increasingly treating artificial intelligence as a core foundation for future development across its operations.

Looking at the first quarter 2026 revenue composition, connectivity remains the leading contributor at $3.3 billion of the $4.7 billion total. The artificial intelligence segment generated $818 million, a meaningful amount for a relatively new area, while the space segment added $619 million.

For the second quarter of 2026, analysts currently anticipate revenue of $6.9 billion and a per-share loss of $0.26, reflecting a YoY decline of roughly 100%. Any meaningful deviation from these expectations could potentially trigger further selling pressure, so investors may want to remain cautious.

From a valuation perspective, SPCX shares trade at clearly elevated levels. The forward P/E ratio of 355.44, P/S of 39.37, and P/CF of 75.40 all stand well above the respective sector medians of 13.03, 1.22, and 7.54, respectively.

Analysts Opinion of SPCX Stock

Overall, analysts have attributed to SPCX stock a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy.” The mean target price of $222.16 denotes a potential upside of 56% from current levels. Out of 34 analysts covering the stock, 22 have a “Strong Buy” rating, two have a “Moderate Buy” rating, seven have a “Hold” rating, one has a “Moderate Sell” rating, and two have ratings of “Strong Sell.”