Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Royal Caribbean Cruises Stock Will Climb or Sink?

With a market cap of $82.1 billion, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is a global cruise vacation company and one of the largest players in the industry. The Miami, Florida-based company operates three wholly owned brands, Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea, and also owns a 50% stake in TUI Cruises, which operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises. 

Royal Caribbean has had a rougher ride than the broader market over the past year. RCL stock has declined 1.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 20.2%. However, the stock has gained 10.4% YTD, narrowing the gap with the benchmark’s 13.2% return. 

Focusing more closely, shares of the cruise operator have lagged behind the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLY) 4% gain over the past 52 weeks. 

On July 28, Royal Caribbean shares popped 5.7% after the company delivered a strong Q2 2026 performance, with resilient demand and robust onboard spending helping the cruise operator beat expectations and lift its full-year profit outlook. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.21, ahead of analysts’ $3.98 estimate, while revenue increased 6.5% year over year to $4.83 billion, slightly surpassing expectations. Strong last-minute bookings, higher onboard spending, and cost efficiencies helped offset rising fuel expenses.

Royal Caribbean also raised the bar for 2026, lifting its adjusted EPS guidance to $17.73-$17.87, implying 14% year-over-year growth. The company said this would translate into a 23% CAGR over the first two years of its Perfecta program, which targets a 20% earnings CAGR from 2024 through 2027 and ROIC in the high teens by 2027.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect RCL’s adjusted EPS to grow 13.8% year over year to $17.79. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion.

Among the 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and eight “Holds.”  

The consensus is bearish than a month ago when the stock had an overall “Strong Buy” rating. 

On Aug. 12, Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke maintained a “Buy” rating on Royal Caribbean and set a price target of $355.

The mean price target of $353.38 represents a premium of 14.7% to RCL's current levels. The Street-high price target of $425 implies a potential upside of 38% from the current price levels.