Soybeans Bouncing Ahead of USDA Data

Soybeans are trading with 3 to 4 ½ cent gains in final pre-USDA report squaring. Futures posted Tuesday losses of 3 to 10 ¾ cents across most contracts, led by the front months. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was down 10 cents at $11.26 1/4. Soymeal futures were 30 to 70 cents lower in the front months and steady to $1 higher in the deferreds, with Soy Oil dropping 48 to 102 points. 

USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China on Tuesday morning for 2026/27 shipment, with 180,000 MT of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. 

Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed condition ratings down 1% at 62% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index slipping 2 points at 361. Much of the drop came in ND (-31), with MN/WI (-4), MO/OH (-2), and IA/KS (-1) all seeing some deterioration. Improvement was seen in several states, including IL (+4), IN (+1), MI (+9), NE (+7) and SD (+4).

A Reuters survey of traders shows expectations for NASS to peg US soybean yield at 52.9 bpa this morning. Harvested acres are seen 163,000 acres higher than in the June report at 84.564 million acres, with production seen at 4.472 bbu. Ahead of the WASDE, stocks for 2025/26 are seen at 321 mbu, down 9 mbu from the previous month. New crop soybean stocks are estimated to drop 6 mbu to 304 mbu.

ANEC raised their estimate for August Brazilian soybean exports by 1.14 MMT to 10.88 MMT.

Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin sold 461,000 MT of the 516,000 MT offered in their auction of imported beans overnight at $596.39/MT. 

Aug 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.47 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents, currently unch

Nearby Cash  was $11.26 1/4, down 10 cents,

Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.51 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents, currently up 4 ¼ cents

Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.68 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents, currently up 4 ¼ cents

New Crop Cash  was $11.10 1/2, down 10 cents,