What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for CF Industries Stock?

Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities. Valued at $18.7 billion by market cap, the company provides clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably.

Shares of this leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products have outperformed the broader market over the past year. CF has gained 42.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 19.9%. In 2026, CF’s stock rose 52.3%, surpassing the SPX’s 12.9% rise on a YTD basis. 

Zooming in further, CF’s outperformance is also apparent compared to the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 20.8% on a YTD basis. Moreover, CF’s returns on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 17.4% gains over the same time frame.

CF has outperformed due to tight global nitrogen fertilizer supply and strong pricing, reinforced by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and reduced export availability from major international producers. As a North American manufacturer, CF benefited from a significant natural gas cost advantage over European competitors burdened by high input prices, allowing it to maintain industry-leading operating margins. This operational advantage, combined with robust free cash flow generation, aggressive share repurchases that drove EPS growth, and steady momentum in clean energy initiatives like low-carbon ammonia production, continues to fuel investor confidence and outperformance.

On Aug. 5, CF shares closed down more than 1% after reporting its Q2 results. Its EPS of $4.73 missed Wall Street expectations of $5.65. The company’s revenue was $2.2 billion, missing Wall Street forecasts of $2.4 billion.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect CF’s EPS to rise 58.9% to $14.89 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.

Among the 18 analysts covering CF stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy” ratings, 11 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and two “Strong Sells.” 

This configuration is less bullish than two months ago, with five analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Aug. 11, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Benjamin Theurer maintained a “Buy” rating on CF and set a price target of $135, implying a potential upside of 14.6% from current levels.

The mean price target of $119.39 represents a 1.3% premium to CF’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $147 suggests an upside potential of 24.8%.