Crude Oil Surges Higher as Inflation Risks Return — $90 in Focus

Crude oil is sharply recovering in an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse, with the rally reviving inflation concerns and pushing Asia-Pacific government bonds lower ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI report. Oil has held its gains as Trump’s new demands on Iran cloud the outlook for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while markets now look to CPI for fresh signals on the Fed’s rate path.

From a technical perspective, crude oil appears to be in wave “iii”, suggesting further upside within a five-wave bullish impulse toward the open July gaps around $90 or even higher. Currently, it could be just slowing down within a projected wave "iv" corrective pullback, but be aware of a three-wave intraday movement that can revisit the 81 support level before resuming higher into wave "v" towards the 90 area. We remain bullish as long as it's above the 79 invalidation level.