Can Gold Make a New High in 2026?

I asked if the current consolidation in gold was healthy in a July 2, 2026, Barchart article, where I concluded with the following:

If gold can hold above $4,000 or $3,500 per ounce, the consolidation period can be very healthy for the market. I favor a scale-down approach to buying gold, leaving plenty of room to add on further price weakness.

Gold could have more downside at the current price level, but an accumulation program that follows the central bank activity could be optimal in the current environment. 

Nearby COMEX gold futures were trading at $4,135.50 per ounce on July 2. In August 2026, the price was higher.

Forecasts remain bullish

After reaching a record high of $5,626.80 per ounce on January 29, 2026, COMEX gold futures ran out of upside momentum and plunged. 

The year-to-date daily continuous gold futures chart shows the 29.7% decline to the June 30 low of $3,955.40 per ounce. 

On June 9, gold futures were well on their way to test below the $4,000 level at below $4,400 per ounce and in a bearish trend; JPMorgan published a research report calling for gold to “push $6,000/oz by year-end, and $6,300/oz a possibility for 2027.” JPMorgan is not just the U.S.’s leading financial institution; it is also a global financial leader that dominates institutional precious metals clearing, trading, and physical vault management. 

Meanwhile, JPMorgan is not the only institutional gold-dealer forecasting higher prices. HSBC predicts gold will average $4,560 in 2026, Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,900 by year-end, and Deutsche Bank expects gold to average $4,800 in Q4 2026. It is a challenge to find any bearish forecasts. While JPMorgan is the most bullish, all forecasts are calling for higher prices by the end of 2026, with COMEX December gold trading at $4,420 per ounce on August 10, 2026. 

Central banks continue to buy gold

One of the factors underpinning the gold market during its bullish trend from 1999 through early 2026, when it ended a streak of 10 consecutive quarters of new all-time highs, has been central bank gold accumulation. 

The chart shows the quarterly net gold purchases by central banks from Q1 2010 through Q1 2026. Over that entire period, central banks were net sellers of gold in only two quarters, selling 18.81 tons in Q4 2010 and 10.60 tons in Q3 2020. Since Q3 2022, the smallest net purchase was 176.34 tons in Q2 2023, and the largest was 456.91 tons in Q3 2022. In Q1 2026, central banks purchased 243.66 tons. In April 2026, the central banks bought a net 17 tons, and in May 2026, central banks bought a net 41 tons.

China is the world’s leading gold-producing country, accounting for around 10% of the world's total 2025 production. Russia is second, with Australia third. 

While Russia has sold gold in the first half of 2026 to finance its ongoing war with Ukraine, its sales of 44 tons are not significant, given that the Russian Federation produced 345 tons in 2025. 

China and Russia are likely underreporting their gold holdings as governments accumulate domestic production. Chinese and Russian gold holdings are likely understated. Meanwhile, China has aggressively added to reserves during the 2026 price correction. 

The chart shows that the People’s Bank of China bought 5 tons in March, 8 tons in April, 9.95 tons in May, and 14.93 tons in June, accelerating its purchases as prices declined. These purchases were from the international gold market and do not account for the gold China accumulated through domestic production, which totaled 384.3 tons in 2025. 

Gold has replaced the euro as the second-leading global reserve asset, second only to the U.S. dollar. 

The long-term trend remains bullish

Gold’s bull market began in 1999, and while the leading precious metal suffered a significant correction after the latest January 2026 record high, the 29.7% decline has not negated the long-term bullish trend. 

The quarterly continuous contract chart shows that gold has not even tested the Q4 2025 low of $3,842.80 in 2026. 

Levels to watch in the gold futures market

After the parabolic rise in 2024, 2025, and the first month of 2026, technical levels in gold are challenging. Gold would have to plunge to test critical support levels for the 27-year bull market. 

The monthly continuous contract chart shows that technical resistance is at the late January 2026 high of $5,626.80 per ounce. The first technical support is at the October 2025 low of $3,842.80, but a move below that level would not negate the over quarter-of-a-century bull market. Gold would have to plunge below $2,078.80 per ounce to destroy the bullish trend. Therefore, gold is dangerous on the long side in August 2026, as there is ample room for a further downside correction. 

Keep the following in mind when considering adding or increasing gold exposure in August 2026:

• The leading financial institutions expect higher prices.
• Central banks continue to buy and add to their gold reserves.
• The long-term path of least resistance remains bullish.
• The ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies supports higher gold prices. 

The following factors are reasons for caution:

• No financial institutions forecasted that gold would explode to over $5,600 per ounce in early 2026 before 2024-2025. Forecasts can be very wrong, as gold and other commodity prices can rise or fall to levels that defy reasonable, rational, and logical technical and fundamental analysis.
• Gold’s parabolic move from 2024 through early 2026 left plenty of technical room for further declines without negating the bullish trend since 1999.
• Rising U.S. interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar index, and risk-off periods could trigger long liquidation in gold to cover margin calls, take profits, or protect capital on long-term risk positions.

Gold’s path of least resistance remains uncertain in August 2026 as bullish and bearish factors are pulling the metal in opposite directions. However, I believe the bullish case remains far more compelling than the bearish case. 

Three ETFs that hold physical gold bullion

The most direct way to invest in or trade gold is the physical market for bars and coins. When central banks purchase gold, they buy physical 400 or 100-ounce bars. For individual investors and traders, physical purchases are impractical due to storage and insurance considerations. Moreover, buying physical gold can involve substantial premiums, and selling physical gold often comes with significant discounts. 

Three ETF products available in standard equity accounts hold physical gold bullion, and their management fees cover storage and insurance costs, providing investors and traders with a practical, liquid way to own gold. 

The Gold SPDR (GLD) was the first commodity ETF introduced in 2004. At around $400 per share, GLD had nearly $140.7 billion in assets under management. GLD trades an average of over 7.34 million shares per day and charges a 0.40% management fee. 

The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a highly liquid gold ETF. At around $82 per share, IAU had over $67.45 billion in assets under management. IAU trades an average of over 5.32 million shares per day and charges a 0.25% management fee.

The GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) is the smallest gold ETF, but it charges the lowest management fee. At around $42.90 per share, BAR had over $1.46 billion in assets under management. BAR trades an average of over 196,800 shares per day and charges a 0.17% management fee.

These three ETFs do an excellent job tracking gold prices. In August 2026, I am bullish on gold but realize that the current bearish trend could take prices lower. If gold is going to make a new high in 2026, as JP Morgan analysts expect, it will need to find a bottom soon and begin forming higher lows and higher highs, with fewer than five months left in this year.