Wheat Falling Back on Tuesday

The wheat complex is trading with midday losses across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW contracts is down 9 to 10 cents so far on the day. KC HRW futures are falling 9 to 10 cents lower across the front months.  MPLS spring wheat is 10 to 11 cents lower across most contracts.

This week’s NASS Crop Progress report showed 91% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by Sunday, now matching the normal pace. The spring wheat crop was 24% harvested, ahead of the 19% 5-year average pace. Spring wheat conditions were down 4% at 51% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping 9 points to 339. Much of that same in MT (-14), SD (-6), ND/WA (-4), and MN (-1), with ID improving 14 points.

NASS will release updated production data for wheat on Wednesday via the monthly Crop Production report, with analysts surveyed by Reuters looking for 1.525 bbu of wheat, an `11 mbu cut from July if realized. Winter wheat is seen down 9 mbu to 981 mbu, with spring wheat expected to slip 7 mbu to 468 mbu. US ending stocks are seen at 715 mbu, which would be a 7 mbu drop from last month.

Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in August at 3-3.4 MMT, which would be a drop from the 4.5 MMT last year. IKAR estimates the Russian wheat crop at 90, down 0.5 MMT from last month. EU soft wheat exports from July 1 to August 9 have totaled 1.01 MMT according to European Commission data, down from the 2.36 MMT in the same week last year.

Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.31, down 9 1/2 cents,

Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.49 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.03 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  is at $7.21 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $6.59 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents,

Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  is at $6.84 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents,